Top U.S. Radio Song (Based on Audience Impressions): 2026

Kalshi Culture › Music Closes Dec 25, 2027 · $3.2K traded · $1.7K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

80%I Just Might

I Just Might80%
Choosin’ Texas4%
A Bar Song (Tipsy)3%
Man I Need2%
I Knew It, I Knew You2%
Ordinary1%
luther1%
Golden1%
Die With a Smile1%
I’m the Problem1%
Lose Control1%
Not Like Us1%

12 more

No One Noticed1%
BIRDS OF A FEATHER1%
hate that i made you love me1%
Billie Jean1%
drop dead1%
Beauty and a Beat1%
Janice STFU1%
SWIM1%
DtMF1%
Stateside + Zara Larsson1%
Babydoll1%
End of Beginning1%

How the odds have moved

I Just Might: 79% on Oct 20, 80% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
I Just Might	80%	76¢	83¢	$1.20	2.9K
Choosin’ Texas	4%	1¢	7¢	$14.29	2.0K
A Bar Song (Tipsy)	3%		5¢	$20.00	6.1K
Man I Need	2%		4¢	$25.00	5.4K
I Knew It, I Knew You	2%	1¢	2¢	$50.00	323
Ordinary	1%		1¢	$100.00	51.00
luther	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
Golden	1%		1¢	$100.00	191
Die With a Smile	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
I’m the Problem	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.4K
Lose Control	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
Not Like Us	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
No One Noticed	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
BIRDS OF A FEATHER	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
hate that i made you love me	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.4K
Billie Jean	1%		1¢	$100.00	5.0K
drop dead	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.4K
Beauty and a Beat	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
Janice STFU	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.4K
SWIM	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.4K
DtMF	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K
Stateside + Zara Larsson	1%		1¢	$100.00	51.00
Babydoll	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.4K
End of Beginning	1%		1¢	$100.00	3.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: U.S. Radio Song, Audience Impressions, Based

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Ella Langley – Choosin' TexasTrendyHipHop · 4 days agoElla Langley turns a simple two-step into the biggest song in America with “Choosin’ Texas,” a track that has completely dominated the charts since its release. The song arrived on October 17, 2025, as part of her album “Dandelion,” and it…
No. 1 ‘Again’! Ella Langley Makes More History on Country Airplay ChartBillboard · 4 days agoThe country star adds her sixth No. 1 in record time with "Loving Life Again," and a fourth from Dandelion. Ella Langley earns her sixth No. 1 on Billboard’s Country Airplay chart as “Loving Life Again” rises a spot on the Oct. 31-dated…
Choosin’ Texas: Eli Lilly breaks ground at Houston oral GLP-1 manufacturing siteBioXconomy · 4 days agoThe Lone Star State will host one of ten planned facilities in the US by the pharmaceutical conglomerate. Earlier this week, Eli Lilly announced it broke ground on a large site in Houston, Texas. The location will be one of ten US…
Why Ella Langley Cast Kaitlin Butts in ‘Choosin’ Texas’ VideoDRGNews · 6 days agoLangley knew that Kaitlin Butts would be good at playing the mean girl. Continue reading… Why Ella Langley Cast Kaitlin Butts in ‘Choosin’ Texas’ Video Langley knew that Kaitlin Butts would be good at playing the mean girl. Continue…
Ella Langley’s ‘Choosin’ Texas’ Matches Mariah Carey’s 26-Week Streaming RecordDecatur Radio · 6 days agoCountry music continues to hold a strong presence on the streaming charts, with Ella Langley’s Choosin’ Texas maintaining its position among the most-played songs in the United States. The single has now spent 26 weeks at No. 1 on…
Why Ella Langley Chose Kaitlin Butts to Play the Mean Girl in Her ‘Choosin’ Texas’ Video [Exclusive]Taste of Country · 6 days agoKaitlin Butts isn't scared of a fight. During a recent conversation with Taste of Country, the singer admitted that it's kind of a running joke in her touring band that she won't let bad behavior slide. She doesn't start conflict, she…
Ella Langley’s ‘Choosin’ Texas’ Ties Mariah Carey for Most Weeks Atop Streaming Songs ChartBillboard · 7 days agoBoth "Choosin' Texas" and "All I Want for Christmas Is You" have spent 26 weeks at No. 1. Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” ties Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” for the most weeks at No. 1 on Billboard’s Streaming Songs…
'Choosin' Texas' turns one as Ella Langley reflects on the song that made her country's biggest starOutKick · 8 days agoElla Langley speaks about her deep appreciation for supporters and how their connection transformed her path during an interview tied to the 2026 iHeartRadio Music Awards held March 26, 2026, in Los Angeles. Ella Langley hopped on social…
Ella Langley Joins Shania Twain In Elite Company As “Loving Life Again” Goes #1 On Country RadioWhiskey Riff · 3 days agoAs we near the end of the year, it’s becoming increasingly clear that 2026 will go down as the year of Ella Langley. Simply put, it’s hard to argue that she’s not just the hottest star in country music, but in music as a whole. Launching…
Why the charts are full of old songs - and so are your playlistsBBC News · 2 days agoMore music is being created than at any other time in human history. Every day, more than 100,000 songs are being submitted to streaming services. And despite the deluge of AI music - Spotify says it has removed 75 million "spammy tracks"…
Greta Van Fleet Scores Its Fifth Top Hard Rock Albums No. 1Billboard · 4 days agoPalace for the People continues a streak that dates to 2017. Greta Van Fleet boasts its fifth No. 1 on Billboard’s Top Hard Rock Albums chart, bowing atop the Oct. 24-dated ranking with Palace for the People. In the week ending Oct. 15…
Hulu Developing 'These Summer Storms' Drama Based On Book (Exclusive)Deadline · 2 days agoEXCLUSIVE: With their Netflix comedy series Nobody Wants This launching its third season on Netflix this weekend, Erin and Sara Foster have lined up another series project, These Summer Storms. The drama based on Sarah MacLean’s 2025 novel…

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Top U.S. Selling Album (Physical and Digital Sales Combined): 2026

77%ARIRANG

ARIRANG77%▼ 2
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Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally2%
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Short n’ Sweet1%
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Thriller1%

Culture › Music

Top U.S. Album by Total Equivalent Album Units: 2026

79%I’m the Problem

I’m the Problem79%
The Life of a Showgirl10%▼ 1
ARIRANG3%

15 more

SOS1%
KPop Demon Hunters1%
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS1%
GNX1%
Short n’ Sweet1%
One Thing at a Time1%
ICEMAN1%
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love1%
The Fall Off1%
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally1%
The Great Divide1%
Dandelion1%
The Art Of Loving1%
Octane1%
Thriller1%

Culture › Music

Top U.S. Selling CD Album: 2026

87%ARIRANG

ARIRANG87%▲ 2
The Life of a Showgirl2%
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love2%

25 more

Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally2%
KPop Demon Hunters2%▲ 1
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS2%▲ 1
The Great Divide2%
Dandelion2%▲ 1
Hurry Up Tomorrow2%▲ 1
GNX1%
The Art Of Loving1%
ICEMAN1%
I’m the Problem<1%
SOS<1%
Short n’ Sweet<1%
One Thing at a Time<1%
The Fall Off<1%
Octane<1%
Thriller<1%
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT<1%
Rumours<1%
Lover (Live From Paris)<1%
IGOR<1%
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess<1%
1989 (Taylor’s Version)<1%
Folklore<1%
Midnights<1%
Lover<1%

Culture › Music

Top U.S. Streamed Song (On-Demand Audio): 2026

93%Choosin’ Texas

Choosin’ Texas93%
Ordinary2%
Not Like Us2%

21 more

SWIM2%
Babydoll2%
A Bar Song (Tipsy)1%▼ 1
DtMF1%
drop dead1%▼ 1
luther<1%
Golden<1%
Die With a Smile<1%
I’m the Problem<1%
Lose Control<1%
No One Noticed<1%
BIRDS OF A FEATHER<1%
hate that i made you love me<1%
Billie Jean<1%
I Knew It, I Knew You<1%
Beauty and a Beat<1%
Janice STFU<1%
I Just Might<1%
Stateside + Zara Larsson<1%
Man I Need<1%
End of Beginning<1%

Culture › Music

Top U.S. Selling Digital Song: 2026

85%Choosin’ Texas

Choosin’ Texas85%▲ 1
I Knew It, I Knew You3%▼ 2
Golden1%

21 more

hate that i made you love me1%
SWIM1%
Ordinary<1%
luther<1%
Die With a Smile<1%
I’m the Problem<1%
Lose Control<1%
A Bar Song (Tipsy)<1%
Not Like Us<1%
No One Noticed<1%
BIRDS OF A FEATHER<1%
Billie Jean<1%
drop dead<1%
Beauty and a Beat<1%
Janice STFU<1%
DtMF<1%
I Just Might<1%
Stateside + Zara Larsson<1%
Man I Need<1%
Babydoll<1%
End of Beginning<1%

Culture › Music

Top U.S. Selling Vinyl Album: 2026

44%ARIRANG

ARIRANG44%▼ 2
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love19%▼ 1
The Life of a Showgirl6%

25 more

Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally6%
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS4%
Thriller4%
The Art Of Loving3%▲ 1
The Fall Off2%
Short n’ Sweet2%
The Great Divide2%
Hurry Up Tomorrow2%
I’m the Problem1%
SOS1%
KPop Demon Hunters1%
GNX1%
One Thing at a Time1%
ICEMAN1%
Dandelion1%
Octane1%
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT1%
Rumours1%
Lover (Live From Paris)1%
IGOR1%
The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess1%
1989 (Taylor’s Version)1%
Folklore1%
Midnights1%
Lover1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onBillboard

Trading closesDec 25, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$3.2K (76,353 contracts)

At stake$1.7K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Ordinary is ranked #1 on Luminate's 2026 Year-End Music Report: Top 10 Radio Songs of 2026 in U.S. (Based on Audience Impressions), as Published by Billboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions