Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%▼ 1
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Who will be House Minority Leader in the 120th Congress? (For the 120th Congress)
The odds
32%Mike Johnson
- Mike Johnson32%▼ 1
- Jim Jordan30%▼ 1
- Steve Scalise13%
- Hakeem Jeffries5%
- Tom Emmer4%
- Richard Hudson2%
- August Pfluger2%
- Kevin Hern2%
- Katherine Clark1%
- Pete Aguilar1%
- Joe Neguse1%
- Ted Lieu1%
4 more
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez1%
- Lisa McClain1%
- Jay Obernolte1%
- Mike Lawler1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Johnson | 32% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 3.6K |
| Jim Jordan | 30% | ▼ 1 | 27¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | 2.5K |
| Steve Scalise | 13% | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 7.5K | |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 13.5K | |
| Tom Emmer | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 6.6K | |
| Richard Hudson | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | ||
| August Pfluger | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | ||
| Kevin Hern | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | ||
| Katherine Clark | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 13.1K | ||
| Pete Aguilar | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 11.0K | ||
| Joe Neguse | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 10.0K | ||
| Ted Lieu | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 10.0K | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 8.0K | ||
| Lisa McClain | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 4.7K | ||
| Jay Obernolte | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 3.4K | ||
| Mike Lawler | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 4.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Minority Leader, Mike Johnson, Jim Jordan
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.