AL-01 House winner?
98%Jerry Carl
- Jerry Carl98%
- Clyde Jones2%
Install
UT-04 House winner?
The odds
94%Mike Kennedy
- Mike Kennedy94%▼ 1
- Jonny Larsen6%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Mike Kennedy: 96% on Oct 20, 94% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Kennedy | 94% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 96¢ | $1.05 | 3.3K |
| Jonny Larsen | 6% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 2.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: UT- House, Mike Kennedy, Jonny Larsen
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Livestream: Amendment B, new legislative race ratings and moreJoin our livestream, "What the Heck is Happening in Utah Politics?" Tuesday night at 7:30 pm Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon plans to run for Salt Lake City Mayor next year, adding his name to a field that is filling up even… -
Utah congressional districts are warming fast. That may not move the political needleAs the campaign trail heats up in the final sprint to Election Day, Salt Lake’s new 1st Congressional District is heating up in another, more literal way. It’s warming faster than all but one other district nationwide. Average temperatures… -
Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained • Salt Lake MagazineHome » Redistricting, Ousted Leaders, and a Competitive Salt Lake Seat: Utah’s Midterms Explained We won’t hit on every name you’ll see on your November ballot, but we will point out some notable hits and misses in the primaries and direct… -
Letter: The Trump administration has gutted Utah’s public lands and raised prices for all of us. We must show our disapproval accordingly.The Salt Lake Tribune Letter: The Trump administration has gutted Utah’s public lands and raised prices for all of us. We must show our disapproval accordingly. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson | AP) President Donald Trump holds an executive order… - Opinion: Utah’s hottest midterm races to watch — what you need to knowUtahns will soon be free of political commercials as Election Day approaches in less than two weeks. The much-anticipated results will determine whether a blue wave, major polling mistakes or third-party upsets occur. Here is a primer of…
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Ten Utah House seats shift toward Democrats in latest ratings updateRepublicans are still favored to keep their supermajority, but the path to breaking it just got shorter Every change in Utah Political Watch’s latest House race ratings points the same way: toward Democrats. Ten of the 75 districts shifted… -
Utah Senate race ratings Update: 4 races shift toward DemocratsEvery rating change in Utah Political Watch’s latest update of the 2026 state Senate map moves toward Democrats. For the first time since we began publishing ratings, one race is a genuine toss-up. Four of the 15 seats on the November… -
Federal judge blocks U.S. Forest Service relocation to Salt Lake CitySALT LAKE CITY — A federal judge has issued a sweeping ruling, blocking the U.S. Department of Agriculture's massive reorganization, including a planned relocation of the U.S. Forest Service headquarters to Salt Lake City. In a ruling… -
Livestream: Utah 2nd Congressional District debateJoin our livestream of the 2nd Congressional District debate between Republican incumbent Blake Moore and Democrat Peter Crosby. Utah Political Watch's Bryan Schott will offer live commentary. The attorneys defending the man accused of… -
Utah Congressional District 4: U.S. Rep. Mike Kennedy faces 3 challengersAs he concludes his first term in Congress, U.S. Rep. Mike Kennedy will face three challengers seeking his seat representing Utah’s new 4th District. Each faces a difficult battle against the Republican incumbent, who received two-thirds… -
Housing, Iran, and public lands divide 4th Congressional District candidatesUtah's 4th Congressional District candidates faced off Thursday night over rising costs, public lands, and the federal government's role in addressing the state's challenges. A question about rising gas prices opened the congressional… - Letter: Attacks — like Sen. Lee’s — on Utah’s iconic national monuments are attacks on all who visit or call Utah home(Julia Demaree Nikhinson | AP) President Donald Trump holds an executive order modifying the Bears Ears National Monument in the Oval Office of the White House, Monday, July 13, 2026, in Washington. Behind Trump, from left: U.S. Rep. Mike…
Related markets
All house ›AL-02 House winner?
69%Rhett Marques
- Rhett Marques69%
- Shomari Figures31%
AL-03 House winner?
98%Mike Rogers
- Mike Rogers98%
- Lee McInnis1%
AL-04 House winner?
99%Robert Aderholt
- Robert Aderholt99%
- Amanda Pusczek1%
AL-05 House winner?
94%Dale Strong
- Dale Strong94%
- Andrew Sneed6%▲ 1
AL-06 House winner?
97%Gary Palmer
- Gary Palmer97%▼ 1
- Maurice Mercer3%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions