AL-01 House winner?
98%Jerry Carl
- Jerry Carl98%
- Clyde Jones2%
Install
KY-06 House winner?
The odds
54%Ralph Alvarado
- Ralph Alvarado54%
- Zach Dembo46%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Ralph Alvarado: 69% on Oct 20, 54% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETRalph Alvarado: 68% → 62%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Alvarado | 54% | 53¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 91.2K | |
| Zach Dembo | 46% | ▼ 1 | 45¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 85.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: KY- House, Ralph Alvarado, Zach Dembo
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Kentucky 6th Congressional District debate: Where Ralph Alvarado, Zach Dembo stand on key issuesLEXINGTON, Ky. (FOX 56) — With Kentucky's 6th Congressional District preparing to elect a new representative for the first time in more than a decade, Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Dr. Ralph Alvarado laid out sharply different visions… -
Alvarado distances himself from Trump on Iran war, tariffs in KY House debate with DemboThe candidates for Central Kentucky's 6th Congressional District held their only debate of the campaign Thursday night, and the surprise of the evening was Republican Ralph Alvarado putting some daylight between himself and Republican… -
Fact check: GOP attack ad links Zach Dembo to Jeffrey Epstein. Is it accurate?A new attack ad says Democratic congressional candidate Zach Dembo benefitted from a $500,000 political donation from Reid Hoffman, a wealthy friend of the late child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, while Dembo ducked a question on releasing… -
The Kentucky Canary in the Coal Mine for RepublicansOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT When you think of Kentucky, you probably think of horse racing and bourbon. On election night, the state’s 6th Congressional District will be one of the first competitive House races out of the gate, and the… -
Small Bites: TARC to offer free rides to polls on Election DayMuch like yesterday, Louisville residents can expect a sunny day with a high near 72 degrees, according to the latest forecast by the National Weather Service in Louisville. Night will be mostly clear with a low around 45 degrees. Today’s… -
Government corruption tops voter concerns ahead of Nov. 3 midterms: CNBC surveyEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
Kentucky's 6th District race is now a 'toss up' between Alvarado, DemboAccording to political analysts from the Cook Political Report, the district is now a "toss up" between Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado and Democratic nominee Zach Dembo. The district, which was once led by a Democrat, has been held by… -
Dembo and Alvarado, state representative candidates set to face off in Estill County debatePictured, left to right, are Republican House candidate Ralph Alvarado and Democratic House candidate Zach Dembo. Lincoln Wilburn, a junior at Estill County High School, will be moderating an upcoming debate between several congressional… -
Trump Tempts Kentucky Voters With Conditional $100 Million Pharmaceutical Investment PlanHIGHLAND HEIGHTS, Ky.—President Donald Trump announced plans for the Department of War to invest $100 million to support a pharmaceutical company, but the offer is conditional on Republican victories in the midterm elections next month… -
Alvarado, Dembo clash on affordability, housing and 'Big Beautiful Bill' in Lexington debate for Barr's seatLEXINGTON, Ky. (LEX NEWS) — The two candidates competing to succeed Rep. Andy Barr in Congress faced off in Lexington, where they were pressed on how Congress should address some of the biggest issues facing Central Kentucky. Republican… -
Kentucky Democrat Dembo faces backlash over law enforcement stance in tight raceEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered… -
Alvarado, Dembo spar over grocery prices, housing, government benefits and data centers in debateLEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) - Democratic nominee Zach Dembo and Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado squared off in a 6th Congressional District debate Thursday evening at WDKY in Lexington. Here is a rundown of the key issues they discussed. Dembo…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions