KY-03 House winner?

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $870 traded · $664 at stake · prices read 9 h ago

The odds

97%Morgan McGarvey

Morgan McGarvey97%
Maria Rodriguez3%

How the odds have moved

Morgan McGarvey: 97% on Oct 19, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Morgan McGarvey	97%		96¢	98¢	$1.02	802
Maria Rodriguez	3%		2¢	4¢	$27.03	3.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: KY- House, Morgan McGarvey, Maria Rodriguez

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Alvarado distances himself from Trump on Iran war, tariffs in KY House debate with DemboYahoo News · 3 days agoThe candidates for Central Kentucky's 6th Congressional District held their only debate of the campaign Thursday night, and the surprise of the evening was Republican Ralph Alvarado putting some daylight between himself and Republican…
Press Release: Morgan McGarvey criticizes Trump trade war and taxpayer-funded TV ads in MS NOW interviewQuiver Quantitative · 5 days agoMcGarvey criticizes Trump’s trade policies, warning they harm Kentucky bourbon, consumers, and rural hospitals. McGarvey criticizes trade policy: Congressman Morgan McGarvey said Kentucky bourbon is being hurt by trade tensions with…
KY House District featuring part of Lexington comes down to incumbent, ousted predecessorLexington Herald Leader · 6 days agoVoters in Kentucky’s House District 45 should recognize both men running for state representative Nov. 3. There’s the incumbent, freshman state Rep. Adam Moore, D-Lexington, who is finishing a two-year term in Frankfort. And there’s former…
ABC Florida East Coast Announces 2026 General Election EndorsementsABC Florida East Coast Chapter · 8 days agoABC-FEC endorses candidates across Brevard, Indian River, Martin, St. Lucie, Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties COCONUT CREEK, Fla. — Associated Builders and Contractors Florida East Coast (ABC-FEC) has announced its endorsements…
'Make your voices heard': Hundreds join 'No Kings' rally in St. Matthewswhas11.com · 8 days agoLOUISVILLE, Ky. — With fewer than 20 days until the midterm elections, 200 people lined Frankfort Avenue in St. Matthews for an early voting and “No Kings” rally. “People still care. They may focus on different issues, but the basic issues…
Who has Trump endorsed in Kentucky? What to know before NKY rallyLexington Herald Leader · 10 days agoPresident Donald Trump is coming to Kentucky on Saturday, Oct. 17, as part of his multi-state "midterm blitz" tour to bolster Republican candidates across the country. Amid dropping approval ratings and concerns of low Republican voter…
Texas Legislative Progressive Caucus visits McAllenRio Grande Guardian · 11 days agoMCALLEN, Texas - Three members of the Texas Legislative Progressive Caucus held a “People’s Hearing” in McAllen on Sunday, October 11 at the historic Cine El Rey. The group was on a fact-finding mission, to hear from voters about the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLibrary of Congress

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$870 (3,960 contracts)

This week$2

At stake$664

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the House member sworn in for KY-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Conservative Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions