AL-01 House winner?
97%Jerry Carl
- Jerry Carl97%
- Clyde Jones3%
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IL-04 House winner?
The odds
91%Patty Garcia
- Patty Garcia91%▼ 4
- Chris Getty9%▲ 7
- Lupe Castillo<1%
- Mayra Macías<1%
How the odds have moved
Patty Garcia: 96% on Oct 20, 91% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patty Garcia | 91% | ▼ 4 | 91¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 8.9K |
| Chris Getty | 9% | ▲ 7 | 8¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 10.7K |
| Lupe Castillo | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | 6.6K | ||
| Mayra Macías | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 3.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IL- House, Patty Garcia, Chris Getty
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Illinois 4th District race: Lyons Mayor Chris Getty navigates controversies in rare independent bidIn a deep-blue congressional district where the Democratic nominee faces accusations of heavy-handed political maneuvering, Lyons Mayor Chris Getty has pitched himself as a middle-ground alternative. Not a Republican. Not a Democrat, this… -
Illinois 4th District race: Chuy García’s handpicked successor Patty García defends path to CongressPatty García’s path to Congress was paved long before Election Day. The challenge now for the first-time candidate: Shaping how the voters she wants to represent see her. Her pitch was clear as she spoke to campaign volunteers in Chicago’s… -
3 denied entry to Chris Getty campaign event in BrookfieldA hyperlocal news site committed to in-depth reporting on issues concerning Riverside and Brookfield, Illinois. Three people were denied entry to Lyons Mayor Chris Getty’s congressional campaign meet and greet event at Irish Times on… -
4 candidates make their case to voters in Illinois' 4th Congressional District raceBERWYN, Ill. (WLS) -- The four candidates seeking to represent Illinois' 4th Congressional District presented their competing visions to voters during a debate Tuesday night at Berwyn City Hall, less than two weeks before Election Day… -
Illinois' 4th Congressional District candidates make case to votersIllinois' 4th Congressional District candidates Patty Garcia, Chris Getty, Lupe Castillo and Ed Hershey made their case to voters for the election. Bukangi the shark became an unlikely sensation after it was spotted in a canal in Busan… -
2026 Illinois Midterm Elections Voter GuideRaces on your ballot, explained — so you're not guessing at the polls. Free thanks to the generous support of our members Deadlines and voting dates for the 2026 Illinois general election. Selection of races we're covering in the Chicago… -
Cook County assessor favorite Patrick Hynes vows ‘stability,’ detente with appeals boardIn 2020, Patrick Hynes walked out of the Cook County assessor’s office, frustrated, he said, with then-boss Fritz Kaegi’s leadership. In March, he ousted Kaegi in the Democratic primary. In December, he expects to return to the office as… -
Daywatch: American and United are in a stalemate at O’Hare, but rivalry keeps growingEarlier this year, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby declared a “line in the sand” against American Airlines, as he vowed to add as many new flights as necessary to keep the lead in market share at Chicago’s hotly contested O’Hare… - Daywatch: Cook County commissioner seeks more data protection from ICECook County commissioners are looking to take a digital leap to help protect residents’ data from the grasp of immigration enforcement agents. The Cook County Legislation and Intergovernmental Relations Committee passed an amendment…
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Lyons Mayor Rakes In $400K For Congress Race, Almost Reaching Democrat Hopeful's HaulLYONS, IL – Few doubt the campaign fundraising prowess of Lyons Mayor Christopher Getty. For years, Getty, also Lyons Township's elected supervisor, has raised hundreds of thousands for his local campaign accounts, despite facing no… -
4th District race in Illinois pits Democrat Patty Garcia against Republican Lupe CastilloOctober 14, 2026 / 5:43 PM CDT / CBS Chicago U.S. Rep. Jesus "Chuy" Garcia is retiring at the end of his term, and four candidates have lined up to run for his seat in Illinois' 4th Congressional District in the upcoming November election… -
Race for Congress: Patty Garcia vs. Lupe Castillo in Illinois' 4th DistrictCBS News Race for Congress: Patty Garcia vs. Lupe Castillo in Illinois' 4th District 3 things learned at Halas Hall: William's update, no starter announced for Falcons, player injuries Prisco's Family Market in Aurora celebrates 100 years…
Related markets
All house ›AL-02 House winner?
69%Rhett Marques
- Rhett Marques69%▼ 1
- Shomari Figures32%
AL-03 House winner?
98%Mike Rogers
- Mike Rogers98%▼ 1
- Lee McInnis1%
AL-04 House winner?
99%Robert Aderholt
- Robert Aderholt99%
- Amanda Pusczek1%
AL-05 House winner?
94%Dale Strong
- Dale Strong94%
- Andrew Sneed6%
AL-06 House winner?
97%Gary Palmer
- Gary Palmer97%▼ 1
- Maurice Mercer3%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions