AL-01 House winner?
98%Jerry Carl
- Jerry Carl98%
- Clyde Jones2%
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FL-12 House winner?
The odds
85%Gus Bilirakis
- Gus Bilirakis85%
- Kimberly Overman15%
How the odds have moved
Gus Bilirakis: 93% on Oct 20, 85% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETGus Bilirakis: 91% → 86%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Bilirakis | 85% | 85¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 11.2K | |
| Kimberly Overman | 15% | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 16.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FL- House, Gus Bilirakis, Kimberly Overman
Search ›-
FL House & GOP Pulling FundingFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul A look at Florida's congressional races and top GOP groups pulling funding from first-term incumbents. - Donald Trump rallies Fort Myers for Byron Donalds, Ashley Moody, floats Marco Rubio mission to CubaPresident Donald Trump says once conflict in Iran settles, he may immediately send Marco Rubio to the island of Cuba. “We’re going to come back from Iran. Those beautiful ships. We’ll pass Cuba. We’ll have one of them stop about 50 yards…
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Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we’re voting forSome people don’t do politics, choosing instead to let politics do them (and their neighbors). Many don’t have that privilege and that’s why you’re here. The 2026 general election ballot is a doozy that’ll take stamina, but use this voting… -
Leela Gray unveils military and veterans agenda ahead of roundtable with Katherine ClarkCongressional candidate Leela Gray rolled out an agenda focused exclusively on veterans and military issues as she prepares to hold a roundtable on veterans issues with House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark. Gray, a Pinellas Democrat, has… -
Kathy Castor, Mike Beltran square off in a rare debate for CongressIn an election season with few debates, there was a spirited one for U.S. House Friday at the Tampa Tiger Bay Club. It's for a close contest for what used to be a safe seat for Tampa Congresswoman Kathy Castor. Castor has served in… - Castor, Beltran get testy during congressional candidate forumTampa Bay Times TampaâÂÂs Tiger Bay Club on Friday hosted a forum that was meant to cover all three of Hillsborough CountyâÂÂs newly redrawn congressional seats: Districts 12, 14 and 15 .But the stars of the show were Democratic U.S…
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District 14 Congressional candidates take part in nonpartisan political forumYBOR, Fla. (WFLA) — Representative Kathy Castor and Mike Beltran took part in a nonpartisan political forum put on by the Tampa Tiger Bay Club. Both are fighting for Florida’s 14th Congressional District seat, which Castor currently holds… -
Delegation for 10.16.26: Guard shortage — Trump returns — diesel diplomacy — party lines — AI deceptionAfter another powerful hurricane hit the state, members of Florida’s congressional delegation say the need for more National Guardsmen in Florida is clearer than ever. Sen. Ashley Moody and Rep. Vern Buchanan led a bicameral letter to War… -
Donald Trump to hold rally in Fort Myers ahead of MidtermsPresident Donald Trump is set to return to his home state to rally voters as the Midterm elections approach. The Commander-in-Chief will hold an event in Fort Myers on Oct. 23. A venue will be announced later, and tickets will be available… -
Bipartisan bill aims to fix long-standing Medicare Advantage payment gap in Puerto RicoWASHINGTON, D.C. — A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers on Capitol Hill introduced legislation Wednesday to fix a long-standing funding disparity in Puerto Rico’s healthcare system that leaves Medicare Advantage plans on the island… -
Florida National Guard Is Stretched To The Brink — Lawmakers Say It’s Time To GrowSource: Florida National Guard Fourteen members of Florida’s congressional delegation are asking the federal government to increase the size of the Florida National Guard, pointing out that the state has one of the smallest Guard presences… -
With Guilfoyle gone, US has no ambassador in Athens againKimberly Guilfoyle’s departure from Greece leaves the United States without an ambassador in Athens. Beyond Guilfoyle’s activities and behavior – which will, reportedly, come under scrutiny from congressional committees and has become a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions