FL-02 House winner?

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1 today · $4.5K traded · $2.6K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

92%Austin Rogers

Austin Rogers92%
Amanda Green8%

How the odds have moved

Austin Rogers: 92% on Oct 20, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Austin Rogers	92%		91¢	92¢	$1.08	4.4K
Amanda Green	8%		7¢	8¢	$12.20	6.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FL- House, Austin Rogers, Amanda Green

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FL House & GOP Pulling FundingFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul · 4 days agoFOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul A look at Florida's congressional races and top GOP groups pulling funding from first-term incumbents.
Amanda Green, Austin Rogers to face off in only Tallahassee forumMiami Herald · 7 days agoRepublican Austin Rogers and Democrat Amanda Green, who are contending to replace outgoing U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn in Congress, will meet in their only Leon County candidate forum, on Oct. 27. The luncheon and forum is hosted by the Network of…
Blue Dogs rush in for Amanda Marie Green in CD 2@Fla_Pol · 10 days agoThe fiscal hawks in the House Democratic Caucus are sweeping into the Panhandle to help Amanda Marie Green. The Blue Dog PAC, a moderate group focused on electing fiscally conservative and national security-focused Democrats, endorsed the…
Principles Over Party: Why I’m Supporting Austin Rogers for CongressMedium · 12 days agoWhy constitutional liberty, faith, family, fiscal responsibility, and the willingness to find common ground matter more than agreeing on everything. There is something I think we have lost in American politics: the ability to support a…
Blue Dog PAC Endorses Seven New Battleground CandidatesBlue Dog PAC · 10 days agoRep. Adam Gray, Blue Dog PAC Chair, said: “These candidates have flown helicopters and led soldiers, run ranches and family farms, managed city budgets, and found ways to save taxpayers money. They’ve spent their careers making tough…
“Sodagate” Shows Republican Desperation and Rat F***King at its worst.Daily Kos · 12 days agoPolls and early turnout have made Republicans so desperate they are rolling out vicious and absurd dirty tricks to tar Democrats. We saw that yesterday on the Senate level with the bogus story that James Talarico had checked into an Ohio…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLibrary of Congress

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$4.5K (10,691 contracts)

Today$1

This week$38

At stake$2.6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the House member sworn in for FL-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

The race

The candidates, the incumbent, every market on this race and its coverage: the race on 4Conservative Politics ›

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.