AL-01 House winner?
97%Jerry Carl
- Jerry Carl97%
- Clyde Jones3%
Install
CA-01 House winner?
The odds
93%Mike McGuire
- Mike McGuire93%▼ 1
- James Gallagher7%▲ 2
How the odds have moved
Mike McGuire: 95% on Oct 20, 93% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McGuire | 93% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 95¢ | $1.06 | 5.7K |
| James Gallagher | 7% | ▲ 2 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | 11.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Mike McGuire, James Gallagher
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State Sen. Mike McGuire focuses on flipping the House, holding Trump accountable in District 1 raceState Senate President Pro Tempore Mike McGuire addresses reporters after Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a package of measures to redraw the state's Congressional districts in Sacramento, Calif., Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025. California’s… -
‘A representative, not a politician.’ Rep. James Gallagher looks to represent the new Congressional District 1Then-Republican Assembly Leader James Gallagher urging lawmakers to reject a package of measures to redraw the state's Congressional districts at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., Thursday, Aug. 21, 2025. California’s Congressional… -
California cracks down on illegal marijuana growingCalifornia congressman James Gallagher discusses the crackdown on illegal marijuana growing in California. Gallagher talks about the Chinese crime ties to this illegal growing. He seeks the FBI and Kash Patel to help go after this… - Congressional Candidate Mike McGuire | Vulture Migrations | Reno City FCWe hear State Sen. Mike McGuire's vision for California's 1st Congressional District. Plus, thousands of turkey vultures are about to head south. We'll hear why. Finally, professional soccer is returning to Reno in two years. Explore the…
- Newsom, Pelosi Rally San Francisco Crowd Against Prop 39 Voter ID MeasureTwo state senators running for Congress, Scott Wiener of San Francisco and Mike McGuire of Santa Rosa, rounded out the roster of speakers. The large turnout of elected officials underscored how central Proposition 39 has become to…
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U.S. Rep. asks FBI to look into illegal pot grows in Siskiyou, ShastaWatch the Oregon Gubernatorial Debates hosted by KOBI-TV and KTVZ, and view other elections coverage. NORTHERN CALIFORNIA — James Gallagher, who represents California’s 1st Congressional District, wrote a letter to FBI Director Kash Patel… -
Bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation meets with Dalai Lama to reaffirm enduring supportNew representatives to Dalai Lama’s Bureaus in Australia and Taiwan appointed Bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation meets with Dalai Lama to reaffirm enduring support Beijing forcibly shutters three Tibetan schools in Golog amid… -
Marin Co.: Measure P Would Expand Public Responsibility For Childhood EducationAffordable and high-quality early childhood education is economically unattainable in Marin County, so local government should step in to fund it, according to supporters of a 15-year parcel tax on the Nov. 3 ballot. Opponents of the tax… -
China ties suspected in sprawling California pot operations as GOP urges FBI probeAssistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli called out California Democrats for watering down the state's criminal law after federal law enforcement led the charge on a drug crackdown in the infamous Skid Row neighborhood on Thursday. FIRST ON… -
Gallagher urges FBI to take action against illegal marijuana grows in Siskiyou and Shasta counties — but pays no attention to Lassen’s needs and concernsPublisher’s note: Representative James Gallagher issued this statement regarding his request for federal action in Siskiyou and Shasta counties, but apparently his concern does not extend to Lassen County despite our sheriff’s efforts to… - Gallagher, Huizenga, Thompson and Thanedar introduce bill to create United States-India Interparliamentary Group“I am glad to join Rep. Gallagher on legislation to establish the U.S.-India Interparliamentary Group to ensure that there is a permanent forum to strengthen ties, resolve issues, and partner on issues of mutual benefit. Strengthening our…
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California Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber, Ph.D., reminds voters today is the last day to register online to vote in the 2026 General ElectionCalifornia Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber, Ph.D., is reminding voters that today—Monday, Oct. 19, 2026—is the last day to register online to vote in the Nov. 3, 2026, General Election. Eligible Californians can register to vote or…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions