Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%
- Republican Party10%▼ 1
Install
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional) (Feb 1, 2027)
The odds
238.2median
208259
Median 238.2Middle half 230.1 – 244
How the odds have moved
Median: 238.2 on Oct 20, 238.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 211 | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | 252 | ||
| Above 214 | 97% | ▲ 1 | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 1.1K |
| Above 217 | 90% | ▼ 1 | 89¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 776 |
| Above 220 | 90% | ▼ 1 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 1.6K |
| Above 223 | 89% | 86¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 512 | |
| Above 226 | 86% | ▼ 2 | 83¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 1.1K |
| Above 229 | 78% | ▼ 4 | 74¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.6K |
| Above 232 | 70% | ▼ 3 | 66¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 895 |
| Above 235 | 63% | ▼ 2 | 59¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 1.7K |
| Above 238 | 52% | ▼ 3 | 47¢ | 56¢ | $1.79 | 227 |
| Above 241 | 33% | ▼ 6 | 29¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 1.7K |
| Above 244 | 25% | ▼ 6 | 21¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 668 |
| Above 247 | 17% | ▼ 5 | 13¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 265 |
| Above 250 | 10% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 8.4K |
| Above 253 | 7% | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 200 | |
| Above 256 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 575 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House, Midterms, Directional
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.