Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%▼ 1
- Republican Party10%▲ 1
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OR-05 House winner? (2026)
The odds
95%Janelle Bynum
- Janelle Bynum95%
- Patti Adair4%
How the odds have moved
Janelle Bynum: 95% on Oct 20, 95% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janelle Bynum | 95% | 94¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 4.5K | |
| Patti Adair | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $23.26 | 2.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: OR- House, Janelle Bynum, Patti Adair
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Rep. Janelle Bynum Calls on ICE to Halt Operations in Bend Following Silver Rail Elementary School ShootingBEND, Ore. (KTVZ) -- Congresswoman Janelle Bynum's office tells KTVZ News, Oregon's 5th Congressional District Representative is calling on Immigration and Customs Enforcement to stop their non-emergency enforcement operations in Bend and… -
Interactive graphic: Explore how the battle for the House could play outJavier Zarracina is an award-winning senior data and graphics editor for NBC News, where he creates maps, interactives and data visualizations across topics including politics, business, science, health and breaking news. Who will win… -
Top election forecaster: GOP path to holding the House "has all but evaporated"A top election forecaster is now making a major projection, moving the Ohio Governor's race from a Toss-Up to Leans Democrat, and is shifting 19 House races toward Democrats. David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report tells Erin Burnett… -
How Democrats could win the House, how the GOP could hang on, and where to look for a waveDemocrats must compete deeper in territory Trump won in 2024 to make big gains in this year’s midterms, but the political environment is on their side. In 2024, America swung to the right, powering Donald Trump back to the White House with… -
We're on a path to 'barely' hold the House: Majority Leader ScaliseFox News We're on a path to 'barely' hold the House: Majority Leader Scalise House Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., discusses what Democratic control of Congress could look like on 'Hannity.' House Majority Leader Rep. Steve… -
Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House racesIn the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this… -
Jeffries warns of GOP 'diabolical scheme' but says he's bullish on Dems chances to flip the HouseCNN Jeffries warns of GOP ‘diabolical scheme’ but says he’s bullish on Dems chances to flip the House House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN's Manu Raju in an interview that Democrats are likely to win but cautioned that he's on… -
Why Democrats are looking to Katherine Clark to bring ‘order’ to the HouseThe Massachusetts progressive could be the first woman to serve as House majority leader. She’ll have her hands full. Clark, seen Oct. 10 in Cleveland, insisted a House Democratic majority "isn't going to be my-way-or-the-highway from any… -
Laura: The punishment Slotkin alludes to will be ‘severe’ if Democrats take control of the HouseFox News host Laura Ingraham discusses Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., saying she wants the threat of prosecution to deter people from taking jobs in the Trump administration on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ Laura: The punishment Slotkin alludes to… -
Democrats are expanding their House map. Do they have the money to deliver?Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Do Democrats have the… -
The House GOP’s imminent decision on the Omar raidSpeaker Mike Johnson has yet to weigh in on the speech-or-debate implications of the raid, though the House has sometimes taken weeks to articulate a position in other investigations. Rep. Ilhan Omar listens during a hearing on Sept. 22… -
Saudi strike on house in Yemen's Sanaa kills three: Houthi mediaA Saudi airstrike on Yemen's Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa killed three people on Saturday and wounded several others, Houthi media said, adding that the toll remained preliminary. The Iran-backed ... Saudi strike on house in Yemen's…
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
238.1median
207252
Median 238.1Middle half 230.3 – 246.3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.