Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%▲ 1
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IA-03 House winner? (2026)
The odds
84%Sarah Trone Garriott
- Sarah Trone Garriott84%▼ 1
- Zach Nunn16%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Sarah Trone Garriott: 81% on Oct 20, 84% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Trone Garriott | 84% | ▼ 1 | 83¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 67.9K |
| Zach Nunn | 16% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 38.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: IA- House, Sarah Trone Garriott, Zach Nunn
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Why some Iowa Republicans are backing Sarah Trone Garriott over Zach NunnIowa state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott talks Republican crossover voters, rising costs, healthcare, and her race against Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District in a new Gloves Off interview with COURIER founder Tara McGowan… -
Sarah Trone Garriott meets with Iowa seniors to discuss Social SecuritySarah Trone Garriott, Democratic candidate for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, met with Iowa seniors in Des Moines this morning to discuss the future of Social Security as part of her campaign. She hosted a roundtable discussion at… -
Beyond the Podium: Sarah Trone Garriott talks immigration, farm bill and term limitsDES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa's 3rd Congressional District is once again among the most competitive House races in the country, with the outcome potentially playing a role in determining which party controls the U.S. House. Political forecasters… -
Beyond the Podium: Zach Nunn talks war power resolution, immigration and social securityDES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa's 3rd Congressional District is once again among the most competitive House races in the country, with the outcome potentially playing a role in determining which party controls the U.S. House. Political forecasters… -
Woman in ad who said a Democrat endangers kids pleaded guilty to endangering kidsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A Republican woman in… -
Congressman Zach Nunn to Join Rep. Carter Nordman for Guthrie County Campaign Event WednesdayCongressman Zach Nunn will join Representative Carter Nordman for a campaign event in Guthrie County tomorrow (Wednesday). Nunn, who represents Iowa’s third congressional district, is seeking reelection. He faces Democratic candidate Sarah… -
Woman in Controversial Political Ad Accuses Democratic Congressional Hopeful of ‘Spiritual Abuse’A local Iowa official called out Saturday for her past arrest record after appearing in a political ad ripping a Democratic Congressional candidate as “just plain dangerous” has spoken out — accusing the House hopeful of “spiritual abuse.”… -
AOC Goes Full Woke On 'Trans Rights' Because She's A 'Girl's Girl'Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) said at a Maine town hall Thursday that she defends transgender rights because she is a "girl's girl," telling the crowd she does not support trans rights just to protect her own, but supports "the… -
Woman Arrested for Child Endangerment Shows Up in Ad Decrying Dem as a Danger to Kids: ReportA local official in Iowa is taking heat for appearing in a political ad denouncing a Democrat as “just plain dangerous” for kids — while having once been arrested for child endangerment herself. Shellie Flockhart, who serves as a council… -
GOP attack ad backfires as woman warning about kids exposed for DUI with her kids in carA GOP super PAC ad branding an Iowa Democrat a danger to kids has run into trouble with its own messenger. Shellie Flockhart, a Dallas Center city council member featured in the Congressional Leadership Fund spot, pleaded guilty to child… - Yes, ‘Shoot’ The MessengerPolitiZoom It would behoove people to check the background of those they use in their political ads. This debacle of sorts comes to you from Iowa. Itâs a GOP attack ad, and it backfired quite nicely. You see, they were trying to smear a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.