Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%▼ 1
- Republican Party10%▲ 1
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CA-09 House winner? (2026)
The odds
99%Josh Harder
- Josh Harder99%▲ 2
- John McBride1%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Josh Harder: 96% on Oct 20, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Harder | 99% | ▲ 2 | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 5.8K |
| John McBride | 1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | 960 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Josh Harder, John McBride
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U.S. Rep. Josh Harder looks to beat back Lodi’s John McBride in redrawn District 9Amid the dizzying array of candidates in this year’s Nov. 3 general election, remembering the candidates in District 9 for U.S. Congress is easy: It’s the coach vs. the congressman. The coach is John McBride, a Republican who spent decades… -
Politics Focus | Big media can’t get enough of Adam Gray v. Kevin Lincoln House 13 raceNonprofit, nonpartisan news for the Valley Big shoutout to all of you who came to our VotingMatters event last week. If you missed the invigorating discussion (and free tacos), here are a couple of things I said about local ballot measures… -
ARI Applauds Reliable Artificial Intelligence Research ActBill would open new pathways to advance AI assurance research This week, Representatives August Pfluger (R-TX) and Josh Harder (D-CA) introduced the bipartisan Reliable Artificial Intelligence Research Act (RAIRA). The legislation would… -
New California law cuts red tape to stop golden mussel invasion. Next, action shifts to CongressCalifornia lawmakers have already made a decisive move in the battle against golden mussels, the tiny bivalves that are clogging waterways and pipes in the Delta. But it’s a waiting game in Congress. There, the race is on to see whether…
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
238.2median
207252
Median 238.2Middle half 230.3 – 246.4
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.