CA-21 House winner? (2026)

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $180 today · $10.6K traded · $6.3K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

94%Jim Costa
  • Jim Costa94%
  • Kyle Kirkland6%

How the odds have moved

Jim Costa: 95% on Oct 20, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Jim Costa 94% 93¢ 94¢ $1.06 9.6K
Kyle Kirkland 6% 5¢ 7¢ $14.71 26.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: CA- House, Jim Costa, Kyle Kirkland

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  • Kyle Kirkland Targets Water, Agriculture and CostsAgNet West · 4 days agoKirkland argued that the Central Valley, one of the nation’s most important agricultural regions, deserves stronger representation in Sacramento and Washington. Drawing on decades of experience in finance, corporate leadership and business…
  • 'Intended to intimidate': AOC responds with ice-cold words after mystery envelopes are sent to her office and those of 8 top lawmakersKnewz · 3 days agoRep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said suspicious mailings to congressional offices appeared aimed at intimidating public servants after a letter reached her Bronx district office. She and at least eight other lawmakers announced on October 20…
  • Action News at 6am - October 21, 2026ABC30 Fresno · 4 days agoABC30 Fresno Action News at 6am - October 21, 2026 Kerman mayor faces stalking allegations after confrontation with man Victims in 2019 Fresno mass shooting testify in court Sister of Stephen Hubbard, released by Russia, thanks Trump as…
  • Action News at 4:30am - October 21, 2026ABC30 Fresno · 4 days agoABC30 Fresno Action News at 4:30am - October 21, 2026 Arrest made in connection to man's body found in Merced County: CHP Kerman mayor faces stalking allegations after confrontation with man Victims in 2019 Fresno mass shooting testify in…
  • California Congressman Jim Costa Introduces Bipartisan Bill to Strengthen U.S. Defense Innovation Through Partnership with UkraineSierra Sun Times · 7 days agoSierra Sun Times October 18, 2026 - WASHINGTON – On Friday, Representatives Jim Costa (CA-21), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee's Subcommittee on Europe and the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, Don Bacon (NE-02), Wesley Bell…
  • Additional California federal lawmakers receive suspicious white powder envelopesSacramento Bee · 4 days agoCalifornia federal lawmakers continue to report this week that they are among the dozens of elected officials who have received envelopes containing suspicious white powder. On Tuesday, Reps. Jared Huffman, D-San Rafael, and Jim Costa…
  • Action News Live at 11pm - October 20, 2026ABC30 Fresno · 4 days agoABC30 Fresno Action News Live at 11pm - October 20, 2026 Kerman mayor faces stalking allegations after confrontation with man Victims in 2019 Fresno mass shooting testify in court Rep. Jim Costa received suspicious letter with white…
  • Action News Live at 6:30pm - October 20, 2026ABC30 Fresno · 4 days agoABC30 Fresno Action News Live at 6:30pm - October 20, 2026 Victims in 2019 Fresno mass shooting testify in court Rep. Jim Costa received suspicious letter with white powder: Office Off-duty ICE agent shot by Fresno homeowner granted bond…
  • Action News Live at 6pm - October 20, 2026ABC30 Fresno · 4 days agoABC30 Fresno Action News Live at 6pm - October 20, 2026 Victims in 2019 Fresno mass shooting testify in court Rep. Jim Costa received suspicious letter with white powder: Office Off-duty ICE agent shot by Fresno homeowner granted bond…
  • Action News Live at 3pm - October 20, 2026ABC30 Fresno · 4 days agoABC30 Fresno Action News Live at 3pm - October 20, 2026 Rep. Jim Costa received suspicious letter with white powder: Office Nearly $1 million worth of Pokémon, sports cards stolen in California 9 arrested, including Clovis pursuit suspect…
  • Action News Midday - October 20, 2026ABC30 Fresno · 5 days agoABC30 Fresno Action News Midday - October 20, 2026 Rep. Jim Costa received suspicious letter with white powder: Office Nearly $1 million worth of Pokémon, sports cards stolen in California 9 arrested, including Clovis pursuit suspect, in…
  • At least nine more lawmakers say they were targets of suspicious mail - BreitbartBreitbart News · 4 days agoOct. 21 (UPI) — At least nine U.S. lawmakers announced Tuesday that suspicious envelopes had been mailed to their offices, the latest in a wave of similar mailings targeting federal legislators from both parties in the past week. More than…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.