Warsaw, NC Weather

What Has Changed

Minor adjustments to the marine headlines.

Adjusted dewpoints and temperatures down this evening.

Updated Aviation Discussion.

Key Messages

1) A slow moving nor'easter well offshore will continue to bring impacts along the Outer Banks.

2) Dry with cooler than avg conditions continue through the weekend.

3) Breezy NE winds and high astronomical tides will bring the potential for additional coastal impacts Friday into into early next week.

Marine: Large seas will continue to bring hazardous boating conditions into next week. Strong Small Craft Advisory

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Subtropical Storm Josephine, continues to accelerate northeastward away from our area. As expected a marked decrease in winds have occurred with seas still running quite high off our coast, but lower than previous days. With continued large surf and longer period swell, coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast will continue through early tonight, especially along Hatteras Island where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe. The next high tides are around 530AM Friday. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras Island and a Coastal Flood Advisory for the Northern Outer Banks. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for the beaches from Duck to Cape Hatteras where surf heights 8-12 ft will through early evening. Beyond tonight, continued lowering trend in waves and swell will gradually give us a lull Friday before conditions pick up again (see key message 3 below). It should be noted that although water levels may fall below typical values that would cause flooding, due to the extensive erosion and dune loss, impacts Friday may still continue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Made some slight tweaks to the dewpoint and temperature forecast for tonight given previous days cold weather. Expect dewpoints to range from the mid to upper 30s tonight and with winds potentially decoupling again late tonight, we could see temps lower into the mid to upper 30s as well especially across the more sheltered locations such as Wallace or Kenansville. This in turn could bring a patchy frost threat to portions of the Coastal Plain tonight, though a big caveat in this threat is that it may be too dry for frost formation even with the cold air in place. Otherwise the rest of the forecast remains on track with dry weather and clear skies forecast this evening across ENC.

Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast. Good radiational cooling conditions are expected again tonight. With afternoon dewpoints in the upper 30s, lows in our typical cold spots should drop into the 30s once again. Model soundings do show just a few more knots of wind in the boundary layer compared to yesterday, so we may not be quite as cold as last night. A bit more mixing ensues Friday night as strong high pressure builds in from the north preventing temps from cratering.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Strong high pressure building in from the north and low pressure well off the SE coast will result in a period of breezy to strong NE winds returning late Friday through the weekend with strongest winds along the coast, especially south of Cape Hatteras where gradients will be tightest. This, combined with developing King Tides could lead to additional minor coastal impacts (coastal flooding and rough surf).

Aviation

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the period as the area remains under clear skies and light to calm winds through Friday. Will note we could once again decouple which would allow for temperatures to get into the mid to upper 30s tonight. This in turn could lead to a very low chance (10% or less) of steam fog by the terminals near rivers (primarily PGV where the lowest temps would occur). As a result we may have some patchy fog after 06Z with brief MVFR vsybs possible. Too low of confidence to include in the TAFS now. Either way think any steam fog development would have little impact on operations even if it does develop. Regardless of development, expect VFR conditions through Fri.

Outlook (Friday night through Tuesday): VFR conditions are expected to continue through the next several days with strong high pressure building in from the north.