Swansboro, NC Weather

What Has Changed

Allowed the Coastal Flood Advisory to expire for Tyrrell, Pamlico and Southern Craven Counties.

Extended the Wind Advisory to Midnight tonight for the Outer Banks.

Cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the Pamlico/Pungo Rivers.

Converted the Gale Warning to a Small Craft Advisory for the Albemarle Sound, Alligator River and waters south of Cape Lookout out to 20 nm.

Made minor adjustments to the Gale Warning end times for the remaining coastal zones.

Key Messages

1) A slow moving nor'easter continues to take shape well off the coast, bringing a long duration wind and swell event with high impacts for parts of Outer Banks and adjacent waters well into the work week.

2) Cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings continue in effect. Prolonged period of strong winds and high seas as nor'easter lingers offshore through at least mid week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure will meander off the NC and Mid-Atlantic coast through mid week bringing prolonged strong north to northeasterly winds across ENC. The sfc low was approx 200 mi east of Cape Hatteras last evening but has since drifted eastward to around 260 mi from Cape Hatteras early this morning allowing winds to diminish some across the region. However, guidance continues to wobble the low off the coast while deepening as it slowly lifts northward off the Mid- Atlantic coast as the system remains cut-off from the mean flow aloft. Winds are expected to increase again this afternoon and evening, with another surge potentially on Wednesday, so am reluctant to make many wholesale changes to the current headlines at this time. It is not until Thursday that the low will begin to accelerate away from the East Coast as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Tight pressure gradients between the offshore low and high pressure across the Eastern CONUS will bring strong north to northeast winds across the region with the strongest winds across the Outer Banks where gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect from Duck to Ocracoke through this evening.

The strong winds continue to bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have recently reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended.

Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes, further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco, Ocracoke, areas of Downeast Carteret Co. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks and East Carteret County. Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Lookout and points north through the OBX.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass that has advected in will remain with us through at least mid week with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the 60-70 degree range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

Aviation

Low pressure will continue to slowly lift nwd off the Mid- Atlantic coast bringing breezy northerly winds through the TAF period. Inland terminals have decoupled sufficiently with winds diminishing below 10 kt with early this morning bringing a risk of LLWS impacts with a strong LLJ in place. Wind shear threat will end by mid morning as deeper mixing ensues with gusts to around 20 kt inland. Coast terminals will see the strongest winds with gusts around 25-35 kt today, strongest along the Outer Banks.

Otherwise, pred VFR conditions are expected to prevail with mainly clear skies across most rtes, though the Outer Banks may see periods of STCU that may occasionally drop to MVFR.

Outlook (Wednesday through Saturday): VFR and breezy conditions are expected to continue through much the week as the offshore low remains well east of the coast and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.