Jacksonville, NC Weather

What Has Changed

Lowered the Gales Warning for the Pamlico Sound to a Small Craft Advisory.

Adjusted the timing of marine headlines for several zones based on latest forecast trends.

Dropped the High Surf Advisory for East Carteret and Ocracoke.

Key Messages

1) A slow moving nor'easter well offshore will continue to bring impacts along the Outer Banks through mid week.

2) Dry with cooler than avg conditions continue through the week.

Marine: Gale Warnings remain in effect for portions of the coastal waters into this evening. Large seas will continue to bring hazardous boating conditions into next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Vertically stacked low pressure approx 360 mi east of the NC/VA border will continue to slowly drift northward today, then will quickly accelerate northeastward Thursday as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Winds will continue to gradually east today as the low drifts farther away from the area but still could see gusts around 30-40 mph along the Outer Banks today.

The strong winds offshore continue to bring large surf along the coast as well as coastal flooding impacts along vulnerable locations of the coast, especially along Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where dune structure is fragile. The National Parks Service and NCDOT have reported substantial beach erosion from south Nags Head to Buxton, along with significant overwash occurring on side streets in Rodanthe. Due to hazardous road conditions and flooding, NC-12 remains closed from the Marc Basnight Bridge to Rodanthe, and ferry service remains suspended in certain locations. Additionally, webcams last evening show at least one section of the Pea Island dune structure has been washed away. Each subsequent high tide cycle will continue to threaten the dunes further, and the threat of additional impacts to Hwy 12 remain. Tides are expected

Minor soundside flooding is also a concern along southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, including Frisco and Ocracoke. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Northern Outer Banks.

Additionally, a high surf advisory continues for Cape Hatteras and points north through the OBX where surf height up to 8-12 ft will continue. Have cancelled the High Surf Advisory south of Hatteras as seas have subsided below 8 ft.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pleasantly cooler air mass will remain with us through the next several days with temps a bit below climo. Maximum temperatures through the period are expected to remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s range. Overnight lows will range from the 40s inland to the 50s coast.

Aviation

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mainly clear skies. Northerly winds will continue with gusts around 15-20 kt at the TAF sites through daytime mixing. Coastal sections will see gusts up to around 30 kt, especially along the Outer Banks.

Outlook (Thursday through Sunday): VFR and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the next several days as the offshore low remains well offshore and high pressure to the north. Inland winds would be highest during the daytime with better mixing and gusts up to around 20 kt each day.