How low will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)

Kalshi Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 914.8K contracts · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

10%6,300 or below

S&P 500 now 7,807.24 −0.06%

Falls to 6,30010%
Falls to 6,2008%
Falls to 6,1007%
Falls to 6,0007%
Falls to 5,9004%

How the odds have moved

Falls to 6,000: 7% on Oct 13, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Contracts
5,900 or below	4%		3¢	5¢	353.9K
6,000 or below	7%		6¢	9¢	150.5K
6,100 or below	7%	▼ 1	7¢	8¢	84.7K
6,200 or below	8%		7¢	9¢	106.5K
6,300 or below	10%		8¢	11¢	219.3K

More on this question

All indexes ›

How high will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)

8,095high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,095.

Reaches 8,00066%
Reaches 8,20032%
Reaches 8,40014%
Reaches 8,6008%

Already reached: 7,800 or above

^GSPC−0.06%IVV−0.04%ES=F−0.05%VOO−0.04%

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

71%S&P 500

S&P 50071%
Bitcoin21%
Gold8%▼ 1

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.05%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

2%chance

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.05%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by ___?

21%December 31, 2026

December 31, 202621%

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.05%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

92%chance

^GSPC−0.06%ES=F−0.05%IVV−0.04%SPY−0.06%

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

8,036high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,036 and as low as 7,341.

Reaches 8,00052%
Reaches 8,20041%
Reaches 8,6008%
Reaches 9,0005%

Falls to 7,40060%
Falls to 7,20026%
Falls to 7,00021%
Falls to 6,2009%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

^GSPC−0.06%VOO−0.04%SPY−0.06%IVV−0.04%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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