What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Polymarket Closes Dec 31 · $411.8K traded · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

8,100high with an even chance
S&P 500 now 7,807.24 −0.06%

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,100 and as low as 7,341.

  • Reaches 8,00059%
  • Reaches 8,20042%
  • Reaches 8,6008%
  • Reaches 9,0005%
  • Reaches 9,3003%
  • Reaches 10,0003%
  • Falls to 7,40060%
  • Falls to 7,20026%
  • Falls to 7,00021%
  • Falls to 6,2009%
  • Falls to 6,0006%
  • Falls to 5,8004%
  • Falls to 5,2003%
  • Falls to 4,5002%

Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400

How the odds have moved

Falls to 7,200: 26% on Oct 13, 26% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
✓ ↑ $7,400 >99% ▲ 9 100¢ 100¢ $8.9K
✓ ↑ $7,600 >99% ▲ 7 100¢ 100¢ $33.2K
✓ ↑ $7,800 >99% ▲ 18 100¢ 100¢ $9.4K
↑ $8,000 59% ▲ 1 26¢ 91¢ $592
↑ $8,200 42% 34¢ 49¢ $25.3K
↑ $8,600 8% 7¢ 9¢ $39.6K
↑ $9,000 5% 2¢ 8¢ $147
↑ $9,300 3% 3¢ 3¢ $14.3K
↑ $10,000 3% 2¢ 5¢ $446
↓ $4,500 2% 2¢ 3¢ $65.3K
↓ $5,200 3% 3¢ 3¢ $77.4K
↓ $5,800 4% ▼ 1 3¢ 4¢ $47.9K
↓ $6,000 6% 4¢ 7¢ $6.2K
↓ $6,200 9% 7¢ 10¢ $68.9K
✓ ↓ $6,400 >99% ▲ 7 100¢ 100¢ $8.6K
✓ ↓ $6,600 >99% ▲ 8 100¢ 100¢
↓ $7,000 21% ▼ 1 14¢ 27¢ $3.0K
↓ $7,200 26% 14¢ 38¢ $2.0K
↓ $7,400 60% ▼ 1 36¢ 84¢ $757

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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