Carrollton, VA Weather

What Has Changed

Lowered temperatures a bit for tonight/Wednesday morning. RH values have trended lower this week.

Key Messages

1) Breezy, sunny, and dry Fall weather continues this week.

2) Prolonged onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding.

Discussion

As of 700 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy, sunny, and dry Fall weather continues this week.

The latest surface analysis revealed high pressure centered over the Great Lakes and a coastal low well offshore. Clouds associated with the low have moved offshore with clear skies across the local area. Light winds overnight kept most sites from decoupling which has resulted in a bit "milder" temps in the mid-upper 40s for most inland areas as of 7 AM. Meanwhile, temps were in the mid-upper 50s along the coast.

The weather pattern remains largely stale over the next few days with a coastal low lingering well offshore and high pressure remaining centered to the NW of the local area through Thu. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s today through Thu with lows generally in the low-mid 40s inland and mid 50s along the coast. Wed night/Thu morning has the potential to be even cooler than currently forecast with mid-upper 30s possible across the Piedmont and typically cooler inland areas. As such, patchy frost is possible. Otherwise, clear skies continue through the week along with breezy conditions during the day. The only day where clouds could push inland appears to be Wed as the coastal low potentially nudges briefly closer to the coast. However, this looks to be short- lived with clearing expected by Thu. Nevertheless, if clouds do materialize on Wed, temps would likely remain cooler, not getting out of the 60s. Winds remain northerly with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible inland and 25-35 mph possible along the coast today and Wed. Lighter winds are expected on Thu and Fri compared to earlier in the week. However, gusty conditions will remain possible mainly along the coast.

Cool, dry, and sunny conditions continue into the upcoming weekend as a strong area of high pressure (~1036 mb) builds into the region. The coolest day looks to be Sat with highs only in the lower 60s for most (mid 60s across far SE VA/NE NC). Additionally, given the strong high over the region, lows may drop into the mid-upper 30s (potentially cooler in spots) across inland areas Sat and Sun mornings with frost possible. However, the exact details regarding low temps those days is dependent upon the position of the high. If the high is centered farther north, temps will likely be milder and vice versa. Otherwise, models indicate that dry weather is likely here to stay for a while with no chance of rain over the next week (at least).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged onshore flow will lead to multiple elevated tide cycles this week resulting in rounds of coastal flooding.

Aviation

As of 655 AM EDT Tuesday...

Clouds associated with a coastal low remain largely offshore today, allowing for clear skies across all terminals. However, cannot completely rule out a few clouds approaching the coastline today. Winds were generally light inland (<10 kt) but remain elevated along the coast. ORF continues to gust to 20-25+ kt whereas ECG hasn't seen many gusts but has kept sustained winds around 10-12 kt. N winds are expected to increase again between 12-14Z, with gusts to 25-30 kt through the day at ORF/ECG and up to 20-25 kt elsewhere.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the week. Continued breezy N winds are expected through the rest of the week.