Tool, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Quiet weather will continue with steadily warming temperatures through the end of the week.

- An unsettled pattern is beginning to come into view for early to mid next week, with cooler and wetter weather possible.

Short Term

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

"High and dry" is the phrase of the day, as peaceful weather will continue for the rest of this week. North and Central Texas remains under a stout upper-level ridge that continues to drive our subsident and rain-free pattern. Temperatures will remain pleasant and seasonal as light easterly winds and very dry dewpoints keep highs in the in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With a lack of overnight cloud cover, radiational cooling should allow for some brisk and crisp nights, with overnight lows in the 55-60 degree range across the region. Friday, while pleasant conditions will continue for North and Central Texas, the upper-level closed low that has been bringing rain and severe weather to Arizona today will begin to join the broad trough pattern and shift east. This will set the stage for our next eventful weather going into next week.

Long Term

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Saturday, an upper-level closed low will slide northeast into the CONUS via Baja California and integrate into the larger trough pattern. This will intensify the already digging trough, and will be the focus for the upcoming pattern shift. While long-range guidance is coming into agreement on a cold front FROPA into North and Central Texas on or around Tuesday of next week, there is still much uncertainty on timing, intensity, and any rain chances in the area. While there is a most likely outcome, some long-range ensemble members still highlight a potential second, less likely scenario. While both patterns will be discussed here, the bottom line is that it will likely be a cooler, more unsettled week leading up to and on Halloween day, which may impact any planned outdoor activities.

In the most likely scenario, mid to long-range deterministic models (GFS, ECMWF) quickly lift the now integrated upper-level low up and into the Central and Northern Plains. This will flatten the ridge that has been dominating the local pattern, as a new trough begins digging in the Pacific Northwest. The lifting upper- level low will be able to send shortwave disturbances around the base of the trough and into the Southern Plains, priming our area for a pattern shift. Given the quickly lifting trough, this scenario would favor a later, more slow moving cold front that sags south across the Red River from OK and into NTX by mid-next week. This would also favor a dryer pattern through the start of the week, with more isolated precip mainly confined to Northwest Texas.

Some of the ensembles have picked up on the possibility of another, less likely scenario (20-30% chance of occurrence), which would bring a more progressive cold front, as well as more widespread rain chances for North and Central Texas. LREF cluster guidance and GEFS ensembles continue to be bullish on a scenario that involves the upper-level trough shifting northeast much more slowly, and continuing to dig through the Central Plains, instead of lifting quickly north. With the slower pattern, a weak ridge would be likely to develop across the Mountain West, and would help intensify a progressive FROPA from late next Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances along this front would be more widespread with stronger upslope flow ahead of FROPA, with a low (less than 30%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Again, this scenario is the less likely of the two, and fall climatology for NTX/CTX tends to favor a quickly lifting trough with a weaker, sagging cold front behind in its wake.

Regardless of either scenario playing out, a more unstable and cooler pattern will be on tap going into mid-week and leading up to Halloween, as highs area wide will be in the lower 70s, with lows in the 50s. More details and specifics will become clearer as short to mid-range guidance begins to come in over the next few days, so make sure to stay updated with the forecast!

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Winds will continue to remain very calm (less than 6 KTS) and VRB at times, with the prevailing flow still E-ESE (090-120). While some high clouds (FEW250) may overspread D10 after 18Z Thursday, there will be no operational impacts. Winds overnight will continue to stay calm and E-ESE.