Dayton, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the second half of the week.

Discussion

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

High pressure continues to dominate the local weather pattern this week, with warm and dry conditions and light easterly winds persisting for the next several days. Tonight into Wednesday, however, we have a temporary increase in moisture for our southernmost counties. A plume of elevated PWATs (between ~1-1.8") creeps up towards the coast tonight and pushes to our west through Wednesday. These elevated PWATs provide more cloud cover and humidity than any rain chances, and we could see slightly elevated temperatures for the southern portion of our region (mid 80s). Our northern counties remain under the drying trend and thus won't see as warm a day as our southern counties will (low 80s). By Wednesday evening, that dry northern air will move further south, decreasing surface PWATs to less than 1 inch for much of the region. The relative humidity in the afternoons will lower into the mid 20s to lower 30s percent range, which could lead to elevated fire weather conditions.

The dry weather pattern persists through the weekend, with daytime heating steadily rising into the mid 80s with a few places (mostly south of I-10) trying for the upper 80s before next week. Low temperatures are seasonably chilly, generally in the 50s to 60s. Our next chance for rainfall could be next Tuesday, when GFS has a stark theta-e gradient push through our area. We're still far enough out that this could easily change, but long-range models have generally been hinting at a weather-shift towards the end of this month and into November. Until then, we embrace a warming trend that is at least not so humid.

BSM/Cotto

Aviation

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

BKN to OVC clouds around 3500-6000 ft are currently enveloping areas including and south of CXO early this morning. However, VFR conditions are prevailing and are expected to continue to prevail throughout the TAF period. These clouds will gradually push out southwestward later today and eventually leading to clear skies by this evening. There are a few showers mainly around Matagorda Bay early this morning, but this activity will remain west of all area terminals. Expect light northeasterly to easterly winds around 5-10 kt today with winds becoming light and variable after sunset.

Batiste

Marine

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Winds and seas will continue to relax throughout the night, with the Small Craft Advisory falling off at 1 AM on Wednesday. Afterwards, still in our long fetch of easterly winds ~15 kts, Caution Flags may be needed through Wednesday morning. Seas diminish throughout the day and subside to 2-4 ft by Wednesday evening. Rain offshore diminishes on Wednesday and PoPs are negligible through the weekend.

BSM/Cotto