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Commerce, TX Weather
Current conditions
Observed at Sulphur Springs, Sulphur Springs Municipal Airport · 33 min ago
Forecast
10-day-
Today
Sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 0 to 5 mph.
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Tonight
Clear. Low around 53, with temperatures rising to around 55 overnight. Northeast wind 0 to 5 mph.
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Thursday
Sunny. High near 83, with temperatures falling to around 81 in the afternoon. East wind 0 to 5 mph.
National Weather Service forecast updated 2 hrs ago.
Hourly
Hourly forecast- Now53°
- 9 AM56°
- 10 AM63°
- 11 AM68°
- 12 PM73°
- 1 PM76°
- 2 PM78°
- 3 PM79°
- 4 PM80°
- 5 PM79°
- 6 PM77°
- 7 PM72°
- 8 PM66°
- 9 PM64°
- 10 PM62°
- 11 PM61°
- Thu12 AM60°
- 1 AM58°
- 2 AM57°
- 3 AM56°
- 4 AM55°
- 5 AM55°
- 6 AM54°
- 7 AM53°
10-day forecast
Details- TodayOct 21Sunny53°80°
- ThuOct 22Sunny54°83°
- FriOct 23Sunny56°83°
- SatOct 24Mostly Sunny55°83°
- SunOct 25Partly Sunny54°79°
- MonOct 26Partly Sunny17%56°79°
- TueOct 27Chance Rain Showers25%52°73°
- WedOct 28Light showers0.03 in62°82°
- ThuOct 29Rain0.12 in62°82°
- FriOct 30Light showers0.04 in60°70°
Days after the National Weather Service's seven are MET Norway's outlook, a computer model with no forecaster's review.
Radar
Full mapWeather news near Commerce
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Sun & moon
Almanac
MonthlySulphur Springs, records since 1893. Normals 1991–2020. Data from NOAA's Regional Climate Centers (ACIS).
Nearby
- Greenville 23 km
- Paris 56 km
- Sulphur Springs 30 km
- Royse City 50 km
- Bonham 45 km
- Fate 56 km
- Princeton 56 km
- Farmersville 44 km
- Lavon 55 km
Forecasters' discussion
From the National Weather Service office in FWD, issued 3 hrs ago
Key Messages
- Quiet weather will continue through this week, with steadily warming temperatures through the end of the week.
Short Term
(Today and tonight) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Quiet weather will persist the rest of this week as North and Central Texas remain planted underneath an upper ridge and its subsident airmass. Persistently E-ESE winds and resultant upslope flow will temper the expected warming trend, with afternoon highs remaining in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows primarily in the 50s through the rest of the week. Over late week, a closed upper low will move onshore the southwestern CONUS, becoming enveloped within the more progressive northern stream flow. The lagging southern shortwave trough will remain draped across the southwest CONUS heading into the weekend, which will play more of a role in the long term discussion below.
Long Term
(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Over the weekend into early next week, the lagging southwestern shortwave will meander towards the Four Corners, eventually becoming enveloped within a larger digging trough as it moves east towards the Great Lakes. In response, increased moisture advection will spread across west Texas, leading to returning rain chances to our west. This upper-level movement will shunt the Southern Plains ridge further east and south, setting the stage for a pattern shift. As the main trough pushes east, multiple disturbances are expected to round the base and move across the Plains, promoting both a frontal passage and the return of rain chances during first half of next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models have FROPA between somewhere around late Monday or Tuesday, but exact timing remains uncertain this far out. Continue to keep updated with the forecast through the rest of this week as more refined details will become clearer closer in time.
Aviation
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
As of 1030Z, winds at the TAF sites are coming in calm. Flow should settle generally out of the E-ESE closer to 15Z this morning, with speeds increasing to AOB 5-6 KT. Expect VFR to prevail with some mid-upper clouds passing overhead this afternoon and evening. Similar to nights previous, winds will once again become light/variable or calm primarily between the hours of 06-15Z Thursday.
Forecasts, observations and alerts in the United States come from the National Weather Service (NOAA); radar from NOAA's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system; satellite imagery from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) and NOAA's GOES satellites; the map from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Map; air quality from AirNow (EPA and its partners); hurricane information from the National Hurricane Center; climate normals and records from NOAA's Regional Climate Centers (ACIS). Forecasts outside the United States and the UV index: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0); observations outside the U.S.: airport reports via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center. Place names: GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). Data are copied on a schedule and may lag the sources; for warnings that affect your safety, follow your local National Weather Service office and emergency officials. Weather news is drawn from the 4Conservative index and reflects what the press published. Terms of use.