Hempstead, NY Weather

What Has Changed

Updated for Aviation.

Key Messages

1) Mainly dry and breezy conditions expected through the week as a nor'easter slowly passes well south and east of the region.

2) Minor coastal flooding possible during high tide Wednesday evening into Thursday for south shore back bays of Nassau and portions of Great South Bay.

Key Message 1

Low pressure/nor'easter will continue to meander off the Outer Banks of North Carolina today and then slowly move in a general NE direction through the end of the week. The system is cutoff from the northern stream and blocked to its northwest from strong high pressure, so movement will be slow for the next few days before a northern stream trough picks up the low and sends it well offshore late Thursday into Friday and the weekend.

Only minimal impacts are expected as the system will remain far enough offshore. Gusty N-NNE flow will be the main story through mid week, strongest at the coast and on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Peak gusts today may reach 25-30 mph, especially along the immediate coast. For Wednesday into Wednesday night, wind gusts 25-35 mph are expected across Long Island with a low chance of a few gusts reaching 40 mph along the immediate southeast coast/east end. Breezy conditions will continue on Thursday, but the magnitude of the gusts should be weaker and generally around 20-25 mph.

Mainly dry conditions expected through the week with a slight chance of a few showers reaching the forks of Long Island late Wednesday and Wednesday night, which is when the low will be at its closest approach (still several hundred miles offshore).

High pressure reestablishes itself late week into the weekend. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal except for Thursday where temperatures briefly may rise into the mid 60s for many spots, which is slightly above normal.

.KEY MESSAGE 2... Astronomical tides remain low much of the week, but persistent N-NE flow should start bringing a rise in tide levels through Wednesday. Persistent swells from the offshore system may also bring tidal piling and potentially some minor beach erosion.

No concerns for any coastal flooding today and water levels should remain below minor benchmarks with the Wednesday morning high tide. The Wednesday evening tide cycle currently has the highest potential for minor coastal flooding across the most vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays in Nassau and across the western Great South Bay. Guidance has shown a slight downward trend with tide levels for these locations, but there still is a fair amount of spread. Coastal flood statements or advisories may eventually be needed for these locations. Water levels in portions of the lower NY Harbor could come close to minor benchmarks, but look to fall just short. Elsewhere, no coastal flooding is anticipated with Wednesday evening high tide.

Outlook For 15z Wednesday Through Saturday

Wednesday: VFR. NE winds G20-30kt, highest near the coast.

Thursday and Friday: VFR. N winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90