Chappell, NE Weather

Key Messages

- Patchy fog is possible this morning, especially across southwest Nebraska. Any fog that develops should dissipate by mid-morning.

- Warmer temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. A few showers are possible Tuesday, mainly across southwest Nebraska, before dry conditions return Wednesday.

- Much warmer temperatures expected to end the week, with southwest Nebraska potentially seeing low 80s Friday afternoon.

- Multiple chances of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms this weekend into early next week. First, late Friday night into Saturday due to an incoming cold front. Second, a potentially more widespread precipitation event Sunday into early Tuesday morning.

Short Term

Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

This morning, increasing low-level moisture across southwestern portions of the area, combined with weak southeasterly flow and associated moisture advection, will support the development of patchy fog. The greatest potential for fog development appears to be along a Curtis-North Platte-Thedford line and points west. Looking at BUFKIT soundings, a nearly saturated profile within the lowest 50 to 100 mb, along with a low-level inversion and light winds, further supports the potential for fog development. Some uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage and extent of the fog, though any fog that develops should dissipate by mid-morning as daytime heating promotes boundary-layer mixing. Given the increased low-level moisture and potential for fog development, overnight lows should remain in the upper 30s across southwest Nebraska, with lower 40s elsewhere. Through the day Tuesday, west-southwesterly flow aloft will become established across the region, supporting increasing warm air advection within the lower to middle levels. This will allow 850-mb temperatures to rise into the 12 to 17C range, supporting surface highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Within this flow, a weak disturbance is forecast to approach the area, potentially providing sufficient ascent for isolated to scattered shower activity, particularly across southwest Nebraska. Confidence in precipitation development remains low given the relatively weak forcing, and any showers that develop should remain fairly limited in coverage. Ahead of this disturbance, a tightening surface pressure gradient will result in increasing southerly winds, with speeds of 10 to 20 mph expected during the afternoon. Tuesday night lows should remain in the lower to middle 40s as southerly flow and increased low-level moisture persist across the region.

Wednesday into Wednesday night, the upper-level ridge across the central United States will continue to build and amplify, supporting additional warm air advection within the lower to middle levels. 850- mb temperatures are forecast to increase into the 15 to 20C range, approximately 4 to 8C above average for this time of year. Increasing subsidence associated with the amplifying ridge should also promote clearing skies by Wednesday afternoon. The combination of warmer temperatures aloft, increasing sunshine, and boundary- layer mixing should allow highs to reach the lower to middle 70s across the area. With the ridge remaining the dominant upper-level feature and little in the way of appreciable forcing for ascent, dry conditions are expected through Wednesday night.

Long Term

Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Upper ridging will remain situated over the Plains Thursday into Friday, with upper troughing coming onshore over California and traversing into the Rocky Mountain during this time frame as well. With high pressure settling over our region, daytime highs will be well above climatological norms (15 to 20 degrees), with highs being in the mid to upper 70s across western and north central Nebraska. Friday afternoon in particular will be the warmest for the week. 25th/75th percentile for daytime highs are 71 to 75 respectively, with southwest Nebraska having at least a 30 - 50 percent chance of breaking 80 degrees. Daytime mixing will bring strong southerly winds, 20 to 30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph across the region. NBM probabilities, while typically on the higher end of this range, still have gusts in excess of 45 mph at 30 to 50 percent.

As the upper trough crosses the Rockies off to our west, a cold front will arrive late Friday night into our area. There still is some model disagreement on how fast the front progresses southeastward across the region, with the GFS pushing the front mostly out of Nebraska by Saturday evening, while the Euro has it moving more slowly and stalling out in southern Nebraska. Nevertheless, this front will be the catalyst for cooler, seasonable highs in the 60s as well as increasing chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. QPF totals will remain fairly low with areas of southwest Nebraska to the central Sandhills potentially receiving a tenth of an inch or less.

Better precipitation chances could come Sunday through Tuesday morning, when the upper low stalls out over the Four Corners region. This will create southwest flow aloft, bringing a stream of Gulf moisture up into our region. Latest guidance suggests increased chances for primarily rain showers arriving to southwest Nebraska early Sunday morning and spreading northeastward across north central Nebraska throughout the day and into Monday morning. While guidance has an increasing trend of precipitation, there still is a wide range of exactly where it could end up. GFS/Euro models have total QPF, generally a half an inch to an inch range across the eastern portions of our CWA along along and each of Hwy 83. The Euro in particular has totals as high as 2+ inches across the Sandhills. Conversely, HREF is a bit more bullish with a 30 to 50 percent chance of a quarter inch or more, east of Hwy 83, with the probability dropping to 10 to 30 percent chance for a half an inch or more. There is general agreement between models that temperatures should remain above freezing throughout the event, aside from the Euro suggesting a brief period of near to slightly below freezing temperatures across western Nebraska that could bring the first dusting of snow for the season. It should be highlighted that there is low confidence in this scenario playing out at this time. The potential event will continue to be monitored closely if there is any increasing agreement in intensity, timing, and location of potential precipitation.

Aside from the increased shower chances, the upper trough will weaken and merge back into the mean flow while a strong upper trough digs into the Midwest from Canada. Daytime highs heading into early next week will return to seasonal norms in the low to mid 60s across the region, with light south southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Aviation

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Patchy fog development is expected across portions of southwest Nebraska early Tuesday morning, leading to periods of IFR/locally LIFR CIGs and visibilities. This fog will quickly end by late Tuesday morning, and VFR conditions are then expected to prevail into Tuesday night across all of western and north central Nebraska.

Winds become southerly Tuesday afternoon, at 10 to 15kts. Winds then become light and variable Tuesday night, at 5kts or less.