Heber, CA Weather

Update

Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday across much of central and eastern Arizona.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall activity leading to areas of flash flooding as well as isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms leading to damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes are all possible.

- Drier air filtering into the region by the end of the week will lead to more benign weather conditions during the weekend through at least early next week.

- Near normal temperatures today will cool to below normal levels by the latter half of the week and last through the weekend.

Aviation

Updated at 1203Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Rounds of isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms with heavy rain leading to sub-VFR VIS, brief strong and erratic wind gusts, isolated large hail, and low CIGs will be possible today through at least Thursday morning. Confidence in timing out best chances RA/TS is moderate, as isolated RA/TS may develop at any time. An increase in activity is expected going into this afternoon and then there may be a break this evening/early tonight before another round develops later tonight-Thursday morning. A downtrend in activity is expected by Thursday evening. Winds will favor a light easterly component through most of the TAF period, with periods of southerly winds during showers and storms. Lowest CIGs today are expected around 5-7K ft AGL and then may dip to 3-5K ft Thursday morning with showers and storms.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Outside of extended periods of VRB conditions, S'rly flow will be favored at KBLH, with some gusts upwards of 20-25 kt during the afternoon hours, while winds at KIPL will take on familiar diurnal trends, flipping between SE and W. FEW-SCT skies will be common through Wednesday evening, with the lowest bases around 6-7 kft.

Fire Weather

A low pressure system will bring very active weather conditions across much of central and eastern AZ through Thursday as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. Significant rainfall activity is likely in some areas, particularly across the higher terrain areas of the eastern districts where rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" are possible. MinRHs through Thursday will range between 30-40% across the western districts and between 40-70% across the eastern districts along with good to excellent overnight recoveries. Some gusty winds with peak gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are likely this afternoon and once again on Thursday across the western districts. Much quieter conditions are expected starting Friday along with a decrease in humidity values. Near normal temperatures today will cool into a below normal category starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend.