Wellton, AZ Weather

Update

12Z Aviation Discussion

Key Messages

- A Pacific low pressure system will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across central and eastern Arizona, Wednesday and Thursday.

- A Flood Watch is in effect across much of south-central and eastern Arizona from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

- Quieter weather is expected beginning Friday and lasting through the upcoming weekend.

- Temperatures through Wednesday will be near to slightly above normal before cooling to below normal levels takes place by the end of the week and lasts through the weekend.

Aviation

Updated at 1121Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concern will be SHRA/TSRA as early as late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat throughout the later portion of the current TAF period and subsequent packages. Currently models are pointing towards VCSH developing late tonight, with uncertainties of direct impacts, hence the introduction of a PROB30 for light thunderstorms. Winds will continue to be out of the east this morning then a prolonged period of southerly flow this afternoon. Periods of VRB can yet again be expected by the evening hours heading into the overnight period ahead and during any storm activity. Wind speeds are expected to be aob 10kts through most of the TAF period but with any thunderstorms gusts in the mid teens may be possible. FEW-SCT cloud decks will be common through the beginning of the forecast window with the lowest bases around 6-8 kft with increasing coverage near the latter half of the period to BKN-OVC as storms develop.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected over the next 24 hours. Light westerly to VRB winds at KIPL will persist through the morning expected to turn out of the SE by 18Z today. At KBLH VRB winds will continue through the morning before shifting out of the south teetering between SSW and SSE before establishing out of the SW near 03Z this evening. Clear skies will give way to increasing low and mid-level cloud decks later this morning with the lowest bases around 7-9 kft .

Fire Weather

Wind speeds today will generally remain light with limited afternoon gustiness before increasing towards the middle of the week ahead of an approaching weather system. Mainly dry conditions will prevail today before rain chances increase substantially Wednesday and Thursday with significant rainfall amounts, in excess of 1.00", likely across the higher terrain areas of the eastern districts. MinRHs today will range between 30-50% before increasing above 50-60% across the eastern districts Wednesday and Thursday along with good to excellent overnight recoveries. Temperatures will be in a near normal range during the next couple of days before falling into a below normal category by the end of the week and lasting through the weekend.