Nashville, AR Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Gradual warming will bring the Ark-La-Tx back above 80 degrees by midweek, with no end in sight.

- Persistant dry air will continue to worsen drought and fire weather concerns through the next week.

- The current Fire Danger Statement is now in place until at least 7 pm CDT Friday evening.

Discussion

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

An upper-level ridge is continuing to build over the Southern Plains, which will keep temperatures rising into the 80s for much of the area by Wednesday. The ridge axis is expected to shift slightly west as it intensifies and will keep upper-level flow northerly and dry. The dry air combined with broad subsidence from the ridge will keep skies mostly clear and free of rain through the long-term period. The recent NBM has pulled back max temperatures a bit for the extended period, keeping things in the low to mid 80s compared to previous runs continuing to climb into the upper 80s by the end of the week. Should this relatively cooler solution verify, temperatures by Friday will be back to 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Despite warmer temperatures, the current airmass is likely to stay noticeably dry. Long-range models are keeping surface winds easterly for much of this week which will keep dry, continental air moving into the region. The earliest change to this would be late this weekend with the development of a broad surface high near the Mid-Atlantic states, which would possibly shift winds southerly if the edges of the high can reach far enough southwest. This will be something to watch over the coming days, as this is looking past the current forecast period.

The dryness will continue to put fire weather at the forefront of the forecast this week. The ongoing Fire Danger Statement has been extended through this Friday night, as conditions are likely to remain steady through the week. Many counties and parishes have burn bans in place due to the persistant drought and extremely dry fuels present from lack of substantial rain. The public is encouraged to avoid any outdoor burning or activities that could spark wildfires for the foreseeable future.

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Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

For the 20/12z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions with passing SCT mid & high clouds during the period. Surface Winds will range from light/variable ENE between 5-7 mph during the period. /20/

Spotter Information Statement

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Spotter activation may be needed this week in the event of wildfire development.