El Centro, CA 92243 Weather

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system will support multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe through Thursday afternoon across much of central and eastern Arizona.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall with totals over one inch may result in areas of flash flooding across south-central Arizona with a focus on upslope, terrain areas.

- Drier air filtering into the region by the end of the week will lead to more benign weather conditions during the weekend and through at least early next week.

- Near normal temperatures will cool to below normal levels by the latter half of the week and continuing through early next week.

Aviation

Updated at 1756Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Rounds of isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms with heavy rain leading to sub-VFR VIS, brief strong and erratic wind gusts, isolated large hail, and low CIGs will be possible today through at least Thursday morning. Confidence in timing out best chances RA/TS is moderate, as isolated RA/TS may develop at any time. Uncertainty remains in how much SHRA/TSRA may develop near the terminals this afternoon and have highlighted this potential with PROB30s. Storms that do develop may become severe. There may be a lull in activity this evening before SHRA/TSRA increases heading into the overnight hours and continuing through part of Thursday morning. A downtrend in activity is expected by Thursday evening. Lowest CIGs today are expected around 5-7K ft AGL and then may dip to 3-5K ft Thursday morning with showers and storms. Winds are expected to favor an E-SE component throughout much of the TAF period. However, depending on SHRA/TSRA development, wind directions may become erratic at times with an increase in winds from the S-SW possible.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the next 24 hours. Winds will favor a southerly component at the terminals, with gust around 20-25 kts this afternoon at KBLH. KBLH will maintain winds out of the S through much of the period while directions will switch around to the W this evening at KBLH. Periods of variability are expected. FEW-SCT clouds, mostly aoa 6-7 kft, will be common through this evening

Fire Weather

A low pressure system will bring very active weather conditions across much of central and eastern AZ through Thursday as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. Significant rainfall activity is likely in some areas, particularly across the higher terrain areas of the eastern districts where rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" are possible. MinRHs through Thursday will range between 30-40% across the western districts and between 40-70% across the eastern districts along with good to excellent overnight recoveries. Some gusty winds with peak gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are likely this afternoon and once again on Thursday across the western districts. Much quieter conditions are expected starting Friday along with a decrease in humidity values. Near normal temperatures today will cool into a below normal category starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend.

Psr Watches

AZ...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for AZZ545-547-552-556>558- 560>563.

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for AZZ534-537-538- 540>544-546-548>551-553>555.

CA...None.