Manvel, TX 77578 Weather

Key Messages

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible over the next couple of days.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

Discussion

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Today continues our warm and dry trend, as ridging sits over us near the surface and into the mid/upper-levels. Expect clear to partly cloudy skies, with inland highs in the low-mid 80s and coastal highs in the upper 70s-low 80s. Overnight lows will mostly be in the 50s, with urban and coastal locations seeing lows in the 60s. Friday and Saturday will be more of the same, with daytime highs and nighttime lows gradually getting warmer.

Delving a bit further into the synoptic setup for this weekend and the first half of next week, long-range guidance shows a surface high moving toward the US East Coast from Canada. A NE-SW ridge axis gradually digs its way toward our CWA, bringing a few notable changes to our weather. As the pressure gradient tightens, winds pick up out of the E/ESE starting Saturday afternoon, with nearshore and offshore locations hovering near Small Craft thresholds. These winds, in combination with a long easterly fetch providing elevated seas, may make Small Craft Advisories necessary this weekend and early next week. This pattern will also bring with it slightly cooler air, bringing daytime highs for Sunday-Wednesday down a bit toward the low-mid 80s.

Looking beyond Wednesday and closer to Halloween, long-range guidance continues to suggest a turn towards a wetter pattern. Global and AI ensembles continue to be bullish with increasing moisture and a more active subtropical jet. Temperature wise, the long range signals remain mixed, with data skewing warming than normal but with some conflicting signs both in the teleconnections and even among some of the ensemble members.

JMG / Self

Aviation

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 538 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions persist across the area for another TAF cycle. Winds relax to LGT and VRB overnight. Tomorrow afternoon, winds pick back up and begin to veer to the ESE still around 5-10kts.

CMW

Marine

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Winds will generally average from the east through early next week. Expect winds to be light to moderate through Friday, before gradually increasing on Saturday. By late Saturday or early Sunday, winds may reach Small Craft Advisory criteria offshore due to a strengthening easterly fetch of winds that will stretch across the Gulf from Florida to Texas. This will also result in a gradual increase in seas over the weekend. By Monday, offshore seas could peak near 8 feet. This will depend on the exact orientation of the fetch. If winds are more northeasterly, then offshore seas may only peak 5-6 feet. But an east or east- southeast fetch could easily result in 7-8 foot seas offshore.

Winds and seas should improve as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.