Warrenton, MO 63383 Weather

Key Messages

- Seasonably warm and dry weather will last through this weekend.

Short Term

Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. The mid-level omega blocking pattern and surface high pressure influence will keep our sensible weather consistently dry, and insolation will act as the sole driver for our gradually warming temperatures. Expect highs generally in the mid-70s today and tomorrow with lows in the 40s to low-50s in between.

Long Term

Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The pattern begins to change late this week. A mid-level longwave trough circling over the Four Corners area is expected to split, with its poleward section phasing into another trough traversing western Canada. This shift will pull a cold front into the Upper Midwest Saturday and orient it zonally on Sunday as the shortwave zips into eastern Canada. The Mid-Mississippi Valley will remain well south of the cold front over the weekend, and our temperature trends will reflect that. LREF probabilities of 1pm temperatures >69 degrees Saturday and Sunday both range from 75-100%, and the NBM max temperature spread for each day is only 3 degrees. The cold front is expected to finally push into the region on Tuesday, but cooler weather is not guaranteed especially for locations south of I-70. Guidance suggests that the front may be weakening as it arrives, and that it may become stationary before it clears the area. This would mean that less cool air would filter into less of the CWA and that the warm streak may continue through Tuesday. Confidence in this, or for any solution, is still very low given the timeframe in question. Again, the NBM max temperature spread reflects this well as it climbs to 10+ degrees on Tuesday and nearly 20 degrees on Wednesday.

Aviation

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Surface high pressure is located across eastern OH/ western PA with mid clouds approaching the region from the west. VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the afternoon into the evening. Another upper level wave will move across southern Canada, helping to retrograde the surface ridge axis back to the northwest late this evening. Winds at the TAF sites will slowly back from the northeast before decoupling. Thursday morning, another round of morning river valley fog appears likely as winds go calm. The greatest threat for restrictions in visibilities will be at KSUS, while slightly lower chances at KJEF and KCPS. As the sun rises, mixing will quickly commence bringing an end to the river valley fog. VFR Thursday with no precipitation expected.