Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance▼ 2
Install
Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4? (Q4 2026)
The odds
98%Twilio
- Twilio98%
- Cheniere Energy30%▼ 1
- Astera Labs23%▲ 3
- Credo Technology16%
- Okta12%
- Curtiss-Wright12%
- Southern Copper9%
- Cloudflare9%▼ 1
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals9%
- HEICO9%
- LPL Financial9%
- ATI9%
23 more
- MongoDB9%
- Zoom9%
- Affirm Holdings9%
- Circle Internet Group9%
- Tradeweb Markets9%
- Rocket Companies9%
- Venture Global9%
- Toast9%
- TPG9%
- Snowflake9%
- Atlassian9%
- Natera9%
- BWX Technologies8%
- Guidewire Software8%
- Talen Energy8%
- Duolingo7%
- SoFi7%
- Roblox7%
- SpaceX7%▲ 5
- CoreWeave4%
- Medline2%
- Strategy (MicroStrategy)2%
- Cerebras2%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio | 98% | 96¢ | 400 | ||
| Cheniere Energy | 30% | ▼ 1 | 25¢ | 34¢ | 298 |
| Astera Labs | 23% | ▲ 3 | 18¢ | 27¢ | 383 |
| Credo Technology | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | 220 | |
| Okta | 12% | 10¢ | 13¢ | 6.00 | |
| Curtiss-Wright | 12% | 10¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Southern Copper | 9% | 5¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Cloudflare | 9% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 13¢ | 521 |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | 101 | |
| HEICO | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | 140 | |
| LPL Financial | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| ATI | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| MongoDB | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | 100 | |
| Zoom | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | 10.00 | |
| Affirm Holdings | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | 23.00 | |
| Circle Internet Group | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Tradeweb Markets | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Rocket Companies | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Venture Global | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Toast | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | 1.00 | |
| TPG | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Snowflake | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Atlassian | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| Natera | 9% | 4¢ | 13¢ | ||
| BWX Technologies | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | ||
| Guidewire Software | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | ||
| Talen Energy | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | ||
| Duolingo | 7% | 4¢ | 10¢ | ||
| SoFi | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | 107 | |
| Roblox | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | 201 | |
| SpaceX | 7% | ▲ 5 | 2¢ | 11¢ | 279 |
| CoreWeave | 4% | 8¢ | |||
| Medline | 2% | 4¢ | |||
| Strategy (MicroStrategy) | 2% | 4¢ | 17.00 | ||
| Cerebras | 2% | 4¢ |
Related markets
All indexes ›Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
70%S&P 500
- S&P 50070%▼ 1
- Bitcoin22%▲ 2
- Gold8%▼ 1
How high will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)
8,080high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,080.
- Reaches 8,00063%
- Reaches 8,20031%
- Reaches 8,40014%
- Reaches 8,6007%
Already reached: 7,800 or above
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,892median
3,8009,200
Median 7,892Middle half 7,514 – 8,141Above today's price 58%
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
8,030high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,030 and as low as 7,341.
- Reaches 8,00052%
- Reaches 8,20042%
- Reaches 8,6008%
- Reaches 9,0005%
- Falls to 7,40060%
- Falls to 7,20026%
- Falls to 7,00021%
- Falls to 6,2009%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
31,292median
18,50033,500
Median 31,292Middle half 29,345 – 33,015Above today's price 61%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.