Ashton, ID Weather

Key Messages

- Flash Flood Watch for Local Burn Scars: A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Wapiti, Ohio, and Big Rock burn scars Today, where precipitation could trigger debris flows and rapid runoff.

- Widespread showers through most of Today.

- Much colder Today.

- Dry weather returns Saturday.

Discussion

Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Rain has arrived across central and east Idaho. Low pressure will move through our area today. We should see that circulation in the radar reflectivity fields today. Storm total rainfall amounts remain all over the board. Models just having a tough time figuring out the amount of dry air in the system verses the rain intensity. The NBM 10th percentile ranges from 0.10 to 0.25 inches with slightly higher amounts across the central mountains into the Island Park region. The 50th percentile is roughly around 0.75 to 1.00 inches with higher amounts across the central mountains into Island Park where the wrap around moisture is expected to be more persistent. This is roughly where the official forecast is. The 90th percentile is very high still, well over an inch in most places and closer to 1.50 to 2.00 inches. So what this tells us is there is a lot of uncertainty with this system. Amounts will most likely range from roughly 0.50 to 1.25 inches with the highest amounts over the mountains into Island Park, but it could still end up a lot higher if the models have overdone the amount of dry air or it could end up a lot lower if the models have not accounted for the dry air enough. It will be much colder today, that we know for sure! Most areas will struggle to reach 50 today. Some high level snow remains possible, mainly across the central mountains but it shouldn't create too many impacts to roads, if any at all.

This system should exit the area by Saturday with dry weather settling in for the weekend into Monday. Another low pressure system arrives Tuesday, but qpf amounts look much less, probably less than 0.25 inches for most of us. Temperatures will remain slightly below average for most of the week, we could approach seasonable values on Monday ahead of the next system.

Aviation

Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Expect worsening conditions today with ceilings falling to MVFR and possibly IFR by afternoon for many locations. Winds will pick up this afternoon with gusts to 30 kts certainly possible at many sites as well.

Fire Weather

Issued at 114 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Wetting rains are likely across much of the area today. Winds look lighter across the central mountains, but gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely across much of southern and eastern Idaho today. Drier weather with lighter winds returns for Saturday.