Las Cruces, NM 88005 Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 530 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, mostly limited to Southwest New Mexico. A few storms may be strong to severe.

- Warm temperatures over the next couple days, with lowland highs in the lower 80s. This is slightly above normal for late October.

- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday as moisture moves north into the region. Some stronger storms could result in localized flooding, damaging winds, and large hail.

Discussion

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A large upper trough will continue spinning away off the coast of California. Meanwhile an upper high is to our southeast. This will focus moisture and chances for storms over AZ and our western portions of the CWA Wednesday. A Marginal Risk is out tomorrow highlighting the Continental Divide and west for strong storms that could produce severe hail and severe wind gusts. The aforementioned trough lifts out over the Lower CO Basin Thursday but this will spell a very active couple days for the area with potential for flooding, and strong storms that could produce hail and severe wind gusts. Abnormally moist conditions on the way Thursday where PWs will reach up to 1.1" to 1.2" which is record breaking, or at least near record breaking, which will add to the flooding threat.

Behind the main aforementioned trough, another low cuts off and gives us a little more energy for Saturdays storms. Continued rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday where severe thunderstorms are possible once again, as well as flooding. By the end of the weekend, this trough finally gets sucked into the main flow allowing some drier and clearing conditions from west to east. Another strong cold front possible Monday into Tuesday with windy conditions.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VMC through forecast period with skies FEW-SCT080, SCT-BKN250 this evening. Isolated TS across SW NM, not expected to affect local terminals. Dry weather overnight with increasing high cirrus coverage. Surface winds generally 040-080 AOB 5 knots tonight, then increasing out of the SE 110-140 at 5 to 10 knots Wednesday afternoon.

Fire Weather

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead as min RHs stay above critical thresholds and 20 foot winds stay 5-10 mph each afternoon. Min RH values across the lowlands will be 30-50% each afternoon through Sunday, increasing to 50-70% Monday and Tuesday. Min RHs will be anywhere from 40-80% in the area mountains each day through Tuesday. Continued rain chances each day. Storm coverage will be over the Gila region and far western NM locations tomorrow, some storms may become strong. Thursday and Friday will feature strong thunderstorms that could produce hail, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding. Storm coverage is areawide Thursday and into Friday. Storms will focus across much of the area except for far western NM over the weekend. Some storms may become strong to severe.