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Surprise, AZ 85387 Weather
Current conditions
Observed at Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix · 45 min ago
Forecast
10-day-
Overnight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. High near 85, with temperatures falling to around 81 in the afternoon. East southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers and thunderstorms likely between midnight and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2am and 4am, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 4am and 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
National Weather Service forecast updated 1 hr ago.
Hourly
Hourly forecast- Now73°39%
- 2 AM72°25%
- 3 AM72°25%
- 4 AM72°34%
- 5 AM71°35%
- 6 AM70°28%
- 7 AM70°33%
- 8 AM72°34%
- 9 AM76°29%
- 10 AM78°28%
- 11 AM79°27%
- 12 PM82°24%
- 1 PM83°28%
- 2 PM82°44%
- 3 PM84°43%
- 4 PM82°42%
- 5 PM81°31%
- 6 PM80°37%
- 7 PM77°36%
- 8 PM75°49%
- 9 PM74°47%
- 10 PM74°52%
- 11 PM73°52%
- Thu12 AM72°62%
10-day forecast
Details- TonightOct 20Chance Showers And Thunderstorms49%70°
- TodayOct 21Chance Showers And Thunderstorms62%68°85°
- ThuOct 22Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms64%61°80°
- FriOct 23Sunny59°76°
- SatOct 24Sunny59°77°
- SunOct 25Sunny60°79°
- MonOct 26Sunny62°82°
- TueOct 27Sunny82°
- WedOct 28Cloudy66°85°
- ThuOct 29Cloudy0.02 in64°85°
Days after the National Weather Service's seven are MET Norway's outlook, a computer model with no forecaster's review.
Radar
Full mapWeather news near Surprise
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Air quality
Air quality is satisfactory, and air pollution poses little or no risk.
Forecast
- WedGood (39)
- ThuGood (38)
- FriGood (44)
Phoenix, AZ reporting area · 1 hr ago. Data from AirNow (EPA and its state, local and tribal partners); preliminary and subject to change.
Sun & moon
Almanac
MonthlyPhoenix Luke Afb, records since 1951. Normals 1991–2020. Data from NOAA's Regional Climate Centers (ACIS).
Nearby
- Phoenix 45 km
- Glendale 30 km
- Scottsdale 55 km
- Peoria 24 km
- Tempe 59 km
- Tempe Junction 57 km
- Avondale 32 km
- Goodyear 32 km
- Buckeye 40 km
- Sun City 20 km
- El Mirage 15 km
- Sun City West 11 km
Forecasters' discussion
From the National Weather Service office in PSR, issued 2 hrs ago
Update
06Z Aviation Discussion
Key Messages
- A Pacific low pressure system will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly across central and eastern Arizona, Wednesday and Thursday.
- A Flood Watch is in effect across much of south-central and eastern Arizona from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.
- Quieter weather is expected beginning Friday and lasting through the upcoming weekend.
Aviation
Updated at 0610Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concern remains the potential for multiple windows of convection and its associated operational hazards. The first round early tonight (through about 10Z) has lower confidence regarding direct impacts at the terminals, but PROB30 groups have been maintained to address this uncertainty. There is better confidence regarding the second round of TS activity Wednesday afternoon/evening between 19-01Z. Timing may need to be adjusted based on future forecast trends, but TEMPO groups have been carried over from the previous forecast as a reflection of higher certainty. Low CIGs down to 5-6 kft, gusty and erratic winds, and sub- VFR surface VIS will accompany any TSRA that moves near or over the terminals.
Outside of convective windows, winds will maintain some degree of an E'rly component through Wednesday evening with a S'rly tilt to the flow during the afternoon hours. SCT-BKN skies will be common across the region.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Outside of extended periods of VRB conditions, S'rly flow will be favored at KBLH, with some gusts upwards of 20-25 kt during the afternoon hours, while winds at KIPL will take on familiar diurnal trends, flipping between SE and W. FEW-SCT skies will be common through Wednesday evening, with the lowest bases around 6-7 kft.
Fire Weather
Wind speeds today will generally remain light with limited afternoon gustiness before increasing towards the middle of the week ahead of an approaching weather system. Mainly dry conditions will prevail this afternoon before rain chances increase substantially Wednesday and Thursday with significant rainfall amounts, in excess of 1.00", likely across the higher terrain areas of the eastern districts. MinRHs today will range between 30-50% before increasing above 50-60% across the eastern districts Wednesday and Thursday along with good to excellent overnight recoveries. Temperatures will be in a near normal range tomorrow before falling into a below normal category by the end of the week and lasting through the weekend.
Forecasts, observations and alerts in the United States come from the National Weather Service (NOAA); radar from NOAA's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system; satellite imagery from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) and NOAA's GOES satellites; the map from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Map; air quality from AirNow (EPA and its partners); hurricane information from the National Hurricane Center; climate normals and records from NOAA's Regional Climate Centers (ACIS). Forecasts outside the United States and the UV index: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0); observations outside the U.S.: airport reports via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center. Place names: GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). Data are copied on a schedule and may lag the sources; for warnings that affect your safety, follow your local National Weather Service office and emergency officials. Weather news is drawn from the 4Conservative index and reflects what the press published. Terms of use.