Bay City, TX 77404 Weather

Key Messages

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the second half of the week.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month.

Discussion

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The tranquil weather pattern over the area continues as a ridge axis situated over the High Plains remains firmly planted in place. The "name of the game" tomorrow remains persistence as temperatures reach in the low-mid 80's for highs and back down into the high 50's to low 60's for overnight lows tomorrow. The outside feel is anticipated to become less "sticky" as surface moisture decreases a little more and dewpoints dip into the 50's. Situation awareness should continue on Thursday and Friday for an increased fire risk due to the decreasing RH values to around 25-30%. The winds remaining continually light can keep us out of Red Flag territory.

As we end the work week and move into the upcoming weekend, the combination of the dry air and continual ridging will result in little to no rain chances. Daytime highs will also remain in the low to mid 80's inland and the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts. Overnight lows remain seasonal, between the mid 50's and low 60's inland while slightly warmer along the coast tipping into the upper 80s to low 70's. In addition, a weak upper-level jet max entering the region from the Rio Grande Valley will slightly increase surface winds on Saturday and Sunday. Even with the increasing upper-level dynamics, the minimal PWAT values keep chances of precip low.

The good news is that we might start seeing increasing PWATs by early next week. This is the start of showing early signals of a potential pattern change, which may bring rain chances into the area.

CMW/Cotto

Aviation

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conditions along with light E winds expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will likely be VRB during the overnight to early morning hours.

Cotto

Marine

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Light to occasionally moderate easterly winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet will persist through Friday. Winds will strengthen to 15-20 knots during the weekend and seas will build to 3 to 5 feet, possibly up to 6 feet at times over the offshore waters. Caution Flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed Saturday into Monday. The moderate easterly flow will continue for much of the upcoming week, additional Caution Flags may be needed at times.

Mostly dry weather conditions are expected through the weekend. The return of showers and thunderstorms may occur early next week as moisture from the Gulf returns to the local area.

Cotto