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Tonkawa, OK 74653 Weather
Current conditions
Observed at Ponca City, Ponca City Municipal Airport · 40 min ago
Forecast
10-day-
Tonight
Isolated rain showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph.
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Wednesday
A slight chance of rain showers before 10am. Sunny, with a high near 76. South southeast wind 3 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph.
National Weather Service forecast updated 9 hrs ago.
Hourly
Hourly forecast- Now56°10%
- 2 AM55°10%
- 3 AM54°10%
- 4 AM53°10%
- 5 AM53°10%
- 6 AM53°10%
- 7 AM53°15%
- 8 AM53°15%
- 9 AM56°15%
- 10 AM62°11%
- 11 AM66°11%
- 12 PM69°11%
- 1 PM73°
- 2 PM74°
- 3 PM75°
- 4 PM76°
- 5 PM75°
- 6 PM74°
- 7 PM70°
- 8 PM65°
- 9 PM63°
- 10 PM61°
- 11 PM60°
- Thu12 AM58°
10-day forecast
Details- TonightOct 20Isolated Rain Showers11%53°
- TodayOct 21Slight Chance Rain Showers then Sunny15%54°76°
- ThuOct 22Sunny53°79°
- FriOct 23Mostly Sunny55°78°
- SatOct 24Mostly Sunny56°77°
- SunOct 25Slight Chance Rain Showers23%54°74°
- MonOct 26Chance Rain Showers30%51°70°
- TueOct 27Slight Chance Rain Showers19%66°
- WedOct 28Mostly sunny40°55°
- ThuOct 29Sunny36°59°
Days after the National Weather Service's seven are MET Norway's outlook, a computer model with no forecaster's review.
Radar
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Sun & moon
Almanac
MonthlyPonca City Municipal Ap, records since 1948. Normals 1991–2020. Data from NOAA's Regional Climate Centers (ACIS).
Nearby
- Ponca City 20 km
- Arkansas City 49 km
- Blackwell 14 km
- Perry 44 km
- Newkirk 32 km
- Pawnee 59 km
Forecasters' discussion
From the National Weather Service office in OUN, issued 2 hrs ago
Key Messages
Updated at 1039 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
- Warming trend this week.
- Isolated light showers through early Wednesday.
- Higher rain chances return this weekend and continue into early next week.
Near Term
(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Isolated high-based showers continue across the area, but the precipitation observed on radar is still having to fight low-level dry air acting to evaporate the rain, so much of this is virga. So far, no mesonet stations have recorded measurable precipitation. There is a shortwave moving into the area, so there will be continued support into the evening and overnight hours. With the low-level dry air, the expectation is that there will still be a lot of evaporation so probability of measurable precipitation is still rather low at any specific location. Will keep POPs below 20 percent, but include the mention of isolated showers.
Short Term
(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Some of the isolated showers may linger a little past sunrise across northern Oklahoma before diminishing. After this shortwave shifts east of the area Wednesday morning, the upper ridge across western Texas will build north into the southern and central High Plains which will dominate the weather pattern for the area mid- week. Temperatures will warm Wednesday and Thursday with no precipitation expected at all through Thursday thanks to this ridge.
Long Term
(Friday through Monday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026
The upper ridge will gradually shift east late this week into the weekend as the upper trough continues to slowly approach and eventually move across the Plains. Models diverge on the timing/evolution of this trough over the weekend into next week. However, right now it looks like the trough will bring a chance for some more rain and maybe some storms over the weekend into early next week. Currently, rainfall totals do not look as high (3+ inches) as what occurred in some areas with the last couple of rain events but some locations, primarily in western parts of the fa, might see as much as an 1 to 1.5 inches. The uncertainties of the timing/evolution of this system will have an impact on when/where rain chances will occur which could also have an impact on amounts so will have to wait and see how things come together.
Temperatures are expected to remain near or above average for late October over the weekend into early next week although with maybe a slight cool down early next week.
Forecasts, observations and alerts in the United States come from the National Weather Service (NOAA); radar from NOAA's Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system; satellite imagery from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) and NOAA's GOES satellites; the map from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Map; air quality from AirNow (EPA and its partners); hurricane information from the National Hurricane Center; climate normals and records from NOAA's Regional Climate Centers (ACIS). Forecasts outside the United States and the UV index: MET Norway (CC BY 4.0); observations outside the U.S.: airport reports via NOAA's Aviation Weather Center. Place names: GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). Data are copied on a schedule and may lag the sources; for warnings that affect your safety, follow your local National Weather Service office and emergency officials. Weather news is drawn from the 4Conservative index and reflects what the press published. Terms of use.