Windsor, VA 23487 Weather

What Has Changed

Coastal Flood Warnings have ended. Coastal Flood Advisories continue into Friday for some areas.

Key Messages

1) Continued dry with mostly sunny conditions expected late week into the weekend.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies through Friday with minor to locally moderate tidal flooding forecast.

Discussion

As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with mostly sunny conditions expected late week into the weekend.

Subtropical Storm Josephine continues to pull away from the CONUS this afternoon as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds eastward. Clear skies this afternoon will continue tonight. Low temps are forecast to be a few degrees above what we saw this morning due to slightly stronger winds behind a dry front. Lows will mainly be in the low 40s inland upper 40s to low 50s near the water. A few of the typically cooler spots could drop into the upper 30s prior to sunrise, especially if winds are able to completely decouple for a few hours. Breezy and slightly cooler Friday behind the front with temps ranging from the mid to upper 60s to around 70 degrees. High pressure builds over the region Friday night into Saturday. Clear skies and light/calm winds will allow temps to fall back into the 30s, mainly for northern/northwestern portions of the area. Latest statistical guidance has edged upward regarding low temps Friday night but still could see some frost in the cooler spots by sunrise Saturday.

High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern this weekend and likely well into next week. Not much change in the forecast with seasonal temperatures and near zero indications for much needed rainfall returning to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Friday with minor tidal flooding forecast.

Subtropical Storm Josephine is moving NE away from the coast this afternoon. However, large swell continues to propagate toward the coast. Meanwhile, high pressure over ON/QB is gradually building S in the wake of Josephine. Tidal anomalies remain ~2ft above normal primarily due to the swell from Josephine. These anomalies should remain steady and/or slowly fall tonight into Friday. Therefore, primarily nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected and any lingering Coastal Flood Warnings have been converted to Coastal Flood Advisories. Nuisance to locally minor tidal flooding could linger into the weekend as swell continues to propagate toward the coast with persistent (but weaker) onshore flow, as well as a gradual increase in astronomical high tides as we approach full moon.

Aviation

As of 715 PM EDT Thursday...

Clear skies and VFR prevail tonight into at least Wednesday morning. Winds will remain out of the N around 5 kt, except 8-10 kt at ORF. Looking ahead to the daylight hours Friday, most model guidance depicts some lower clouds moving onshore by the late morning and persisting through the afternoon. While there is some chance CIGs hover around 2500 ft, will keep all sites at VFR (3000-3500 ft CIGs) for now and let the upcoming 06z and 12z TAFs refine this potential further. The best potential for these clouds would be at ORF, PHF, and ECG. Winds Friday increase to 10-15 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt possible at ORF.

Outlook: SCT lower cloud cover may return Saturday, but CIGs should primarily be VFR. VFR then prevails early next week. Forecast winds are out of the E-NE through this period, with a typical diurnal max/min expected.