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Alaska Senate Race 2026
Election day: November 3, 2026. The markets' leading names: Mary Peltola, Sen. Dan Sullivan, Ann Diener.
Prediction markets
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- Democratic party75%▲1
- Republican party27%
- Alaska Senate Election WinnerPolymarket
- Mary Peltola74%▲1
- Sen. Dan Sullivan27%▼2
- Ann Diener<1%
- Dustin Darden<1%
- Richard Grayson<1%
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.<1%
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- Democrats sweep66%
- Republicans sweep19%
- Democratic Governor, Republican Senator11%▲4
- Republican Governor, Democratic Senator5%
- Alaska Senate and Governor ComboPolymarket
- Dems sweep70%
- Reps sweep20%▲1
- Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate10%▲2
- Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate4%▼1
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- 275K-290K28%▲8
- 305K-320K23%▲5
- 290K-305K21%▼4
- 320K+20%▲3
- 260K-275K9%▼4
- 230K-245K<1%
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- Peltola 0-3%42%▲14
- Peltola 3-6%21%▲3
- Sullivan 0-3%19%▼3
- Sullivan 3-6%11%▼1
- Sullivan 6-9%5%▼3
- Sullivan 12+%4%
- + 4 more outcomes
- Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?Polymarket
- Texas75%
- Alaska25%▼1
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- Texas US Senate54%▼4
- Alaska US Senate42%
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
In the news
No coverage of this race in the index in the last two weeks.
Congressional and federal records come from official public sources: the House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, GovInfo and the Library of Congress (bill status), the Federal Register, and the congress-legislators project. They are copied on a schedule and may lag the official record by a few hours; the official sources govern. News and coverage counts are drawn from the 4Conservative index and reflect what the press published, not 4Conservative's views. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate, party or position. Terms of use.