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HI-2 House Race 2026 (Hawaii)
Election day: November 3, 2026. The markets' leading names: Jill Tokuda, Brenton Awa.
Prediction markets
- HI-02 House Election WinnerPolymarket
- Jill Tokuda (D)96%
- Brenton Awa (R)4%
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- Jill Tokuda97%▲3
- Brenton Awa4%▼3
- HI-02 House Election Margin of VictoryPolymarket
- Democrat 40-45%25%▼1
- Democrat 35-40%23%
- Democrat 30-35%22%
- Democrat 45-50%12%▼1
- Democrat 50%+5%
- Democrat 20-25%5%▼1
- + 3 more outcomes
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
In the news
No coverage of this race in the index in the last two weeks.
Congressional and federal records come from official public sources: the House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, GovInfo and the Library of Congress (bill status), the Federal Register, and the congress-legislators project. They are copied on a schedule and may lag the official record by a few hours; the official sources govern. News and coverage counts are drawn from the 4Conservative index and reflect what the press published, not 4Conservative's views. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate, party or position. Terms of use.