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CA-45 House Race 2026 (California)
Election day: November 3, 2026.
Prediction markets
- CA-45 House Election WinnerPolymarket
- Derek Tran (D)94%▲3
- Chuong Vo (R)8%▼2
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- Chance of each threshold being reached:
- At least 38%95%
- At least 40%87%
- At least 42%73%
- At least 44%55%
- At least 46%35%
- At least 48%7%
- + 1 more outcome
- CA-45 House Election Margin of VictoryPolymarket
- Democrat 15-20%39%
- Democrat 0-5%39%
- Democrat 25%+38%▼1
- Democrat 20-25%38%
- Democrat 10-15%38%
- Democrat 5-10%38%
- + 2 more outcomes
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
In the news
No coverage of this race in the index in the last two weeks.
Congressional and federal records come from official public sources: the House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, GovInfo and the Library of Congress (bill status), the Federal Register, and the congress-legislators project. They are copied on a schedule and may lag the official record by a few hours; the official sources govern. News and coverage counts are drawn from the 4Conservative index and reflect what the press published, not 4Conservative's views. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate, party or position. Terms of use.