Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)
92%chance▼ 2
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What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?
The odds
28%↓ 10,000
- Reaches 14,0009%
- Reaches 16,0004%
- Reaches 18,0004%
- Falls to 10,00028%
- Falls to 8,0006%
- Falls to 6,0006%
- Falls to 4,0003%
Already reached: ↑ 12,000
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ↑ 12,000 | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | ||
| ↑ 14,000 | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $16.3K | |
| ↑ 16,000 | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.2K | |
| ↑ 18,000 | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $12.3K | |
| ↓ 4,000 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $18.3K | |
| ↓ 6,000 | 6% | 2¢ | 13¢ | $12.3K | |
| ↓ 8,000 | 6% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $15.5K |
| ↓ 10,000 | 28% | ▼ 10 | 27¢ | 28¢ | $29.3K |
Related markets
All indexes ›Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
70%S&P 500
- S&P 50070%▼ 1
- Bitcoin22%▲ 2
- Gold8%▼ 1
How high will the S&P get this year? (In 2026)
8,082high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,082.
- Reaches 8,00063%
- Reaches 8,20032%
- Reaches 8,40014%
- Reaches 8,6007%
Already reached: 7,800 or above
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,892median
3,8009,200
Median 7,892Middle half 7,514 – 8,141Above today's price 58%
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
8,030high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 8,030 and as low as 7,341.
- Reaches 8,00052%
- Reaches 8,20042%
- Reaches 8,6008%
- Reaches 9,0005%
- Falls to 7,40060%
- Falls to 7,20026%
- Falls to 7,00021%
- Falls to 6,2009%
Already reached: ↑ $7,800, ↑ $7,600, ↑ $7,400, ↓ $6,600, ↓ $6,400
Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
31,292median
18,50033,500
Median 31,292Middle half 29,345 – 33,015Above today's price 61%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.