Fed Decision in October?
93%No change
- No change93%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase7%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
Install
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
The odds
5.32%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.32%Middle half 3.27% – 7.75%
How the odds have moved
Median: 5.34% on Oct 2, 5.32% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% or above | 93% | ▼ 6 | 87¢ | 97¢ | 7.3K |
| 2.25% or above | 93% | ▲ 4 | 86¢ | 13.1K | |
| 2.5% or above | 92% | 84¢ | 95¢ | 16.2K | |
| 2.75% or above | 92% | ▲ 1 | 89¢ | 99¢ | 19.0K |
| 3% or above | 78% | ▲ 19 | 75¢ | 98¢ | 13.0K |
| 3.25% or above | 76% | ▲ 15 | 73¢ | 79¢ | 10.5K |
| 3.5% or above | 69% | ▼ 5 | 58¢ | 96¢ | 14.3K |
| 3.75% or above | 69% | ▼ 15 | 64¢ | 76¢ | 8.6K |
| 4% or above | 69% | ▲ 14 | 67¢ | 70¢ | 13.8K |
| 4.25% or above | 69% | ▲ 13 | 22¢ | 86¢ | 8.3K |
| 4.5% or above | 65% | ▲ 5 | 57¢ | 71¢ | 9.1K |
| 4.75% or above | 65% | ▲ 6 | 55¢ | 68¢ | 11.8K |
| 5% or above | 65% | ▲ 15 | 52¢ | 66¢ | 10.4K |
| 5.25% or above | 53% | ▲ 7 | 37¢ | 61¢ | 6.2K |
| 5.5% or above | 43% | ▼ 5 | 40¢ | 46¢ | 11.3K |
| 5.75% or above | 43% | ▲ 15 | 14¢ | 58¢ | 6.7K |
| 6% or above | 35% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 38¢ | 9.5K |
| 6.25% or above | 26% | ▼ 7 | 5¢ | 37¢ | 6.7K |
| 6.5% or above | 26% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 44¢ | 4.4K |
| 6.75% or above | 26% | ▼ 24 | 2¢ | 33¢ | 6.0K |
| 7% or above | 26% | ▲ 12 | 41¢ | 8.6K | |
| 7.25% or above | 26% | ▲ 4 | 6¢ | 30¢ | 5.3K |
| 7.5% or above | 26% | ▲ 21 | 5¢ | 29¢ | 4.7K |
| 7.75% or above | 26% | ▼ 7 | 19¢ | 6.4K | |
| 8% or above | 13% | ▼ 12 | 2¢ | 13¢ | 2.8K |
Related markets
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▼ 2
- No change21%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
1 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
Fed rate cut by...?
50%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting50%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting32%▲ 3
- June 2027 Meeting28%
- March 2027 Meeting14%
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting10%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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