Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?
4%chance
Install
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? (In 2026)
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 13, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
77%chance▲ 2
Fed rate cut before 2027?
4%chance
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
98%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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