GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
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US real GDP growth in 2026?
The odds
2.21%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.83% – 2.45%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% or Below | <1% | 1¢ | 48.9K | ||
| 0.1% to 0.5% | 1% | 3¢ | 29.7K | ||
| 0.6% to 1.0% | <1% | 1¢ | 26.1K | ||
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 5% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 6¢ | 21.1K |
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 31% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 32¢ | 39.0K |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 42% | ▲ 3 | 40¢ | 41¢ | 38.0K |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 15% | 13¢ | 17¢ | 28.5K | |
| 3.1% to 3.5% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | 42.6K | |
| 3.6% to 4.0% | 1% | 1¢ | 35.7K | ||
| 4.1% to 4.5% | <1% | 1¢ | 43.9K | ||
| 4.6% to 5.0% | <1% | 0¢ | 33.3K | ||
| 5.1% to 5.5% | <1% | 0¢ | 9.5K | ||
| 5.6% to 6.0% | <1% | 0¢ | 5.2K | ||
| 6.1% or Above | <1% | 0¢ | 9.5K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The same question on Polymarket
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
2%chance
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.14% – 3.08%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?
2.04%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.04%Middle half 0.86% – 3.08%
US real GDP growth in 2027?
2.25%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.25%Middle half 1% – 3.22%
US real GDP growth in 2028?
2.33%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.33%Middle half 0.95% – 3.48%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.