US real GDP growth in 2026?
2.21%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.83% – 2.45%
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Negative GDP growth in 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.14% – 3.08%
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?
2.04%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.04%Middle half 0.86% – 3.08%
US real GDP growth in 2027?
2.24%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.24%Middle half 0.93% – 3.21%
US real GDP growth in 2028?
2.33%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.33%Middle half 0.95% – 3.48%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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