US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
State of the economy at the end of 2026
The odds
66%Overheating
- Overheating66%
- Soft landing31%▲ 1
- Stagflation2%
- Slack / disinflation1%
How the odds have moved
Overheating: 66% on Oct 13, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating | 66% | 66¢ | 70¢ | 51.3K | |
| Soft landing | 31% | ▲ 1 | 29¢ | 34¢ | 29.5K |
| Stagflation | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | 29.5K | |
| Slack / disinflation | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | 5.1K |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All growth & recession ›US recession by end of 2027?
34%chance▲ 1
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.0 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.14% – 3.08%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.