How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Jan 1, 2027?

Kalshi Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 44.4K contracts · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

5.42%median
10Y Yield now 5.240 −0.08%
5.24%5.54%
Median 5.42%Middle half 5.4% – 5.44%

How the odds have moved

Median: 5.42% on Oct 13, 5.42% now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
✓ 5% or above 99% 3.6K
✓ 5.01% or above 99% 4.1K
✓ 5.02% or above 99% 4.5K
✓ 5.03% or above 93% 1.8K
✓ 5.04% or above 98% 1.3K
✓ 5.05% or above 93% 620
✓ 5.06% or above 96% 871
✓ 5.07% or above 85% 404
✓ 5.08% or above 89% 2.00
✓ 5.09% or above 74% 1.00
✓ 5.1% or above 74% 101
✓ 5.11% or above 96% 577
✓ 5.12% or above 63% 1.00
✓ 5.13% or above 99% 1.1K
✓ 5.14% or above 94% 309
✓ 5.15% or above 55% 1.00
✓ 5.16% or above 61% 772
✓ 5.17% or above 50% 1.00
✓ 5.18% or above 84% 200
✓ 5.19% or above 92% 400
✓ 5.2% or above 96% 1.2K
✓ 5.21% or above 97% 2.7K
✓ 5.22% or above 89% 1.2K
✓ 5.23% or above 93% 804
✓ 5.24% or above 98% 3.0K
✓ 5.25% or above 96% 4.1K
5.3% or above 100% 99¢ 6.9K
5.35% or above 95% 16¢ 74¢ 2.8K
5.4% or above 86% 16¢ 70¢ 341
5.45% or above 22% 16¢ 62¢ 402
5.5% or above 22% ▼ 6 26¢ 57¢ 424

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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