Mauriceville, TX Weather

Key Messages

- No meaningful precipitation is expected through late next week.

- Temperatures will fall into the 50s each night and warm into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated through early next week in response to ongoing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 25-40% each day.

Discussion

(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Upper level ridging is now centered overhead per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. This ridge is quite strong with 500 mb heights around 591 dam, exceeding 95th percentile. At the surface, broad high pressure centered over New England continues to dominate the big picture across the eastern CONUS, yielding light easterly flow over our area. The column is dry with GOES-derived PWAT in the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range, roughly 25th percentile compared to climatology. All this is resulting in yet another cloudless day across the CWA (and for that matter, the entire state of Louisiana and most of the South), with afternoon highs in the mid 80s.

Over the next few days, the upper level ridge will gradually broaden and migrate eastward, while low-level flow remains weak out of the east. This will result in the persistence of dry conditions over our area with little opportunity for moisture return. The combination of weak low-level flow, clear skies, and relatively dry air will continue to allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight, particularly inland. Overnight lows for inland southeast TX and central LA will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and closer to 60 along the coast. Afternoon highs look to be in the low to mid 80s area-wide.

Guidance is in agreement in showing a shortwave disturbance embedded in upper-level southwesterly flow migrating overhead Tuesday, but there is significant uncertainty in the timing and strength of this wave. Unfortunately for those hoping for rain, model soundings are in agreement that the profile overhead will be quite dry, with the better moisture to the west of our CWA. As a result, we are likely to see little more than an increase in cloud cover over our CWA. There may be enough moisture to squeeze out an isolated shower or two over southeast Texas closer to the coast, but even if this does occur, rainfall amounts would likely be negligible and would do little to improve ongoing drought conditions.

By midweek, the surface high is expected to migrate southward towards the southern Appalachians. This will cause the low-level flow to acquire more of an onshore component, allowing moisture to increase over the area. LREF mean PWAT rises to 1.5 inches by the end of the workweek, which would be 85th percentile relative to normal for late October, with surface dewpoints climbing back into the 60s areawide. This pattern will bring a warming trend in both daytime highs and overnight lows through the end of the workweek, but with upper ridging still in control, no real increase in rain chances is expected at least initially. Long range guidance does continue to suggest a weak upper disturbance could push through the area Friday into Saturday. Confidence in any details is inherently very low at this lead time, but if the wetter end of the guidance verifies, this wave could represent the first meaningful rainfall for many areas in weeks.

64/Silas

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Ridging aloft will maintain VFR conditions through the taf period. Winds will become light and variable over the next hour where they will remain through the night. A weak, backdoor cold front will push through the area from east to west early Sunday morning turning winds predominantly easterly between 5-10 knots after 14Z Sunday morning. Guidance indicates a low (approx 20% chance) of ground fog development between 09 and 12Z Sunday morning, but think the frontal passage should limit, if not outright prevent, fog development.

Jones

Marine

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

As surface high pressure builds across the southeastern US, the pressure gradient over the Gulf will tighten and allow for an increase in wind speeds. Breezy east winds around 15-25 kt are expected across the Gulf waters through this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Gulf marine zones east of Cameron through early Monday morning, though small craft should exercise caution in any open waters through the weekend. This advisory may need to be extended later into Monday, but thereafter winds should generally weaken as the pressure gradient relaxes.