Lumberton, TX Weather

Key Messages

- No precipitation is expected through late next week.

- Temperatures will fall into the 50s each night and warm into the low to mid 80s each afternoon.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated through early next week in response to ongoing drought conditions and afternoon relative humidity dropping to 20-35% each day.

Discussion

(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The upper level pattern remains dominated by a ridge axis extending from Texas northward to the Upper Midwest. Strong surface high pressure centered over southeast Canada persists across essentially the entire eastern half of the CONUS, yielding light northeasterly to easterly flow over our CWA. The column remains dry with the 18z LCH sounding indicating 0.89 inches PWAT, near the 25th percentile for mid to late October. Dewpoints sit in the 40s to upper 30s across the CWA, resulting in RH values in the 20-30 percent range as of early this afternoon.

This dry large-scale pattern will persist through the weekend and into early next week as the upper-level ridge axis shifts overhead and then to our east, while the surface high migrates southward into the Appalachian region. This will keep a persistent but generally light east to northeasterly low-level flow over our area, which will continue to advect dry continental air and keep any Gulf moisture well offshore. Global model ensembles depict PWAT at or below 0.5 inches Sunday into Monday, which is below 10th percentile climatologically. This dry airmass with light winds will be ideal for radiational cooling, with overnight lows near 50 inland to near 60 along the coast. Afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 80s area-wide, with virtually no chance of precipitation.

By early next week, the upper ridge broadens out and becomes centered over the southeast US, allowing for a more zonal flow to develop aloft. Guidance depicts a weak upper disturbance embedded in this flow moving through the area around Tuesday, but the airmass at this time looks too dry for any real chance of rain. However, moisture does look to gradually increase again by midweek, as surface high pressure builds into the southern Appalachians and allows the flow over our CWA to turn more onshore. This may set the stage for a return to wetter conditions by the end of the month as longer- range model guidance is beginning to suggest a potential pattern change perhaps as soon as Halloween weekend, but uncertainty is inherently very high at this lead time.

64/Silas

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Once again, high pressure continues to dominate providing light winds and clear skies area-wide. Winds become near calm overnight before increasing to around 5-10 kts through tomorrow.

Marine

Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

High pressure over the eastern US and a broad area of low pressure over the Bahamas and Caribbean region is currently resulting in easterly flow around 5-15 kt over the coastal waters. As the surface high expands to the south, the pressure gradient will tighten, resulting in winds increasing to the 15-25 kt range Saturday. A small craft advisory is now in effect through Sunday morning for waters from Cameron eastward from 20 to 60 NM offshore, though small craft are urged to exercise caution across all open Gulf waters. These headlines will likely need to be extended into Monday or Tuesday, after which winds and seas should diminish.